2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Second_Post_38页_624kb

Summary of Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions for the Republic of Moldova (December 2014)

Core Content

The Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions for the Republic of Moldova, held in September–October 2014, focused on addressing key economic and financial risks, improving fiscal sustainability, and advancing structural reforms. The discussions involved the IMF staff, Moldovan officials, and various stakeholders, including the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), government ministries, and international organizations.

Main Issues and Key Findings

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Moldova's GDP growth slowed significantly from 8.9% in 2013 to 2% in 2014, reflecting a decline in exports and economic activity.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain within the NBM's target range of 5% ± 1.5% in 2014, but will likely rise in 2015 due to delayed utility tariff increases.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is projected to widen to 7.1% of GDP in 2015, driven by lower remittances and higher imports.
• Exchange Rate: The leu has depreciated by about 12.5% against the US dollar since end-2013 due to capital outflows and geopolitical tensions.
• International Reserves: Despite the projected deterioration in the current account, international reserves remain adequate at around US$2.7 billion.

Financial Sector

• Banking System Weakness: Governance in the banking sector remains poor, and some large banks are in fragile condition.
• Capital Adequacy: The aggregate capital adequacy ratio was at 19.9% as of end-June 2014, which is above the minimum requirement of 16% but lower than previous years.
• Nonperforming Loans: Some banks reported high levels of nonperforming loans, and several are loss-making.
• Regulatory Weakness: The NBM's regulatory powers have been limited by court rulings, and enforcement of prudential requirements remains weak.
• FSAP Recommendations: The 2014 FSAP mission identified critical gaps in the financial stability framework, bank governance, and crisis resolution. Implementation of these recommendations has been limited.

Fiscal Policy

• Budget Deficit: The budget deficit excluding grants is projected to rise from 3.8% in 2013 to 5.4% in 2014 and potentially 7.1% in 2015 without corrective measures.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The goal is to bring the deficit down to 1.5% of GDP by 2018, aiming to reduce reliance on donor support.
• 2015 Budget: The draft 2015 budget aims to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP (around 4.5% excluding grants), which requires a balanced mix of expenditure and revenue measures.
• Wage and Pension Increases: Pre-election wage and pension increases have contributed to the widening deficit.
• Fiscal Decentralization: The government plans to fully implement fiscal decentralization in 2015, which may pose challenges to fiscal consolidation.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Monetary Policy: The NBM should maintain a supportive monetary policy stance but resist pressures to finance the budget.
• Exchange Rate: Exchange rate movements should be allowed to reflect economic fundamentals without intervention.

Structural Reforms

• Export Diversification: Efforts are needed to diversify export products and markets, particularly to reduce dependence on Russia.
• Banking Sector Reforms: Improving transparency of beneficial ownership and enhancing the deposit insurance system are key.
• Legal Framework: The NBM needs stronger legal tools to enforce prudential regulations and ensure effective supervision.

Key Recommendations

• Financial Sector:
  • Implement FSAP recommendations, especially regarding regulatory enforcement and crisis management.
  • Ensure disclosure of banks' ultimate beneficial owners and improve the AML/CFT framework.
  • Strengthen the crisis resolution framework and the deposit insurance system.
• Fiscal Policy:
  • Contain the budget deficit below 3% of GDP in 2015 and gradually reduce it to 1.5% by 2018.
  • Prioritize expenditure control and revenue enhancement, including wage moderation and tax reforms.
  • Strengthen the fiscal decentralization framework and ensure accountability across all levels of government.
• Monetary Policy:
  • Maintain a supportive stance but avoid financing the budget through monetary easing.
• Structural Reforms:
  • Diversify exports and improve financial market infrastructure.
  • Enhance legal protection for NBM staff and directors.
  • Address the opaque share registry system and improve cooperation with foreign supervisors.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities acknowledged the need for reform and agreed with the staff's assessment of risks.
• They emphasized the importance of maintaining social and capital spending while managing the deficit.
• They expressed support for the FRL (Law on Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility) and its medium-term fiscal targets.
• They noted the draft 2015 budget aligns with the staff's recommendations and will be implemented.
• The authorities will seek additional technical assistance to improve judicial reform and fiscal accountability.

Conclusion

The discussions highlighted the critical need for Moldova to address banking sector vulnerabilities, strengthen fiscal discipline, and implement structural reforms to enhance economic resilience and long-term stability. The success of these efforts will depend on effective enforcement of regulations, improved transparency, and sustained political commitment to reform.