2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_Second_Post_48页_1mb

Summary of the Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Core Content

The second Post-Program Monitoring discussions for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia) were held in Skopje from October 29 to November 8, 2013, and resulted in the release of a Staff Report, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director. The discussions focused on economic developments, fiscal and monetary policy, external sustainability, and the broader public sector's role in the economy. The report highlights the country's progress in recovery, ongoing challenges, and policy recommendations for future stability and growth.

Main Economic Developments

• Growth: Growth has been strengthening, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2013. A recovery of about 2.5% for 2013 is expected, with domestic demand as the main growth driver.
• Inflation: Headline inflation has decelerated to 1.3% in October 2013, but core inflation remains elevated at 3.2%. The output gap is expected to close by 2017, with inflation likely to return to around 2.25% by year-end 2013.
• Balance of Payments: Despite positive net inflows, official reserves have declined due to negative valuation effects. The trade deficit is projected to improve slightly to 22% of GDP, while the current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2014.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Net FDI has picked up, reaching 3.3% of GDP. FDI has positively contributed to export performance, particularly in the automotive industry, though backward linkages remain weak.
• Banking Sector: The sector remains healthy with high capital adequacy ratios (CAR: 17.3%, Tier 1: 14.7%) and a liquidity ratio above 32% of total assets. Non-performing loans (NPLs) have declined to 11.8% of total loans, but profitability is down due to provisioning practices and uncertainty about parent banks in the euro area.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth: Medium-term growth is expected to strengthen to 4%, with domestic demand remaining the main driver. However, growth is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels of 6%.
• Credit Conditions: Credit expansion is expected to improve in 2014, especially with banks adopting more flexible lending strategies. However, risks persist due to potential restructuring in Slovenian and Greek parent banks, which could lead to a shift away from credit intermediation.
• Current Account: The current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2014 due to a further decline in private transfers. Over the medium term, the deficit is projected to gradually improve.
• Reserve Accumulation: Reserve accumulation is expected to resume in 2014, driven by public sector external borrowing and FDI inflows. Public sector debt is projected to rise from 41.5% to 49% of GDP by 2018.
• Debt Sustainability: External debt is expected to stabilize at 64% of GDP before declining, but the path is more sluggish than in the past. Risks include reliance on public debt for reserve accumulation and weaker private capital flows.

Policy Discussions

Fiscal Policy

• The government has re-established a medium-term fiscal strategy, which aims to reduce the central government fiscal deficit from 3.9% to 2.6% of GDP by 2016.
• Fiscal consolidation is expected to be gradual, with the goal of maintaining growth momentum and policy credibility.
• The 2013 deficit target is likely to be met, but revenue projections may be overstated due to non-tax revenues and grants.
• Capital expenditure remains low compared to peers, and while the budget supports large capital projects, current expenditure commitments could constrain fiscal space.
• The authorities emphasize the importance of infrastructure development and have committed to reducing current expenditure to minimum sustainable levels.

Monetary Policy and External Sustainability

• A pause in monetary easing is recommended due to high liquidity in the banking system, weak private credit growth, and elevated core inflation.
• The central bank has lowered interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate domestic currency deposits and attract long-term foreign capital.
• The authorities argue that government guarantees for public enterprises should not be considered as government debt, but rather as contingent liabilities, given the lack of clear benchmarks and thresholds.
• A long-term debt sustainability analysis (through 2025) is conducted by the Ministry of Finance, but it is not made public due to uncertainty in projections.

Key Information

• Fiscal Strategy: The government has adopted a medium-term fiscal strategy aligned with the IMF's recommendations, aiming for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus and a reduction in the fiscal deficit.
• Public Sector Debt: Public sector debt is expected to increase from 41.5% to 49% of GDP by 2018, with the Public Enterprise for State Roads (PESR) and the Macedonian Bank for Development Promotion (MBDP) playing a significant role.
• FDI Impact: FDI has contributed to export performance and the establishment of free-trade zones, though domestic spillovers remain limited.
• Reserve Management: Reserve accumulation is expected to resume in 2014, primarily due to public sector external borrowing and FDI inflows.
• Debt Vulnerabilities: External public debt is a growing concern, and careful management is needed to ensure adequate foreign exchange reserves and reduce vulnerabilities.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real sector developments from 2008 to 2013.
• Figure 2: Credit developments from 2008 to 2013.
• Figure 3: Monetary policy developments from 2004 to 2013.
• Figure 4: Banking sector developments from 2008 to 2013.
• Figure 5: External sector developments from 2008 to 2013.
• Figure 6: External debt sustainability: bound tests.
• Table 1: Macroeconomic framework from 2010 to 2018.
• Table 2: Central government operations from 2010 to 2014.
• Table 3: Balance of payments from 2010 to 2018.
• Table 4: Monetary survey from 2010 to 2018.
• Table 5: Central Bank survey from 2010 to 2018.
• Table 6: Financial soundness indicators of the Macedonian banking system from 2007 to 2013.
• Table 7: Capacity to repay indicators from 2013 to 2018.
• Table 8: External debt sustainability framework from 2008 to 2018.
• Appendix I: Debt sustainability analysis.

Conclusion

The FYR Macedonia has made progress in economic recovery, but challenges remain in terms of external and fiscal vulnerabilities, weak private credit growth, and the need for structural reforms to improve the trade balance and domestic spillovers. The authorities have committed to a medium-term fiscal strategy, but the success of this strategy depends on maintaining fiscal discipline, improving infrastructure, and managing public sector debt effectively. Monetary policy is expected to shift towards a more neutral stance, with the aim of stabilizing the economy and ensuring external sustainability.