20230519-招银国际-Strong_2Q_guidance_points_to_a_robust_1H23_6页_1mb

Ke Holdings (BEKE US) Q1 2023 Report Summary

Key Financial Performance

• Q1 2023 Results: Adjusted net profit reached RMB 3.56 billion, doubling from Q4 2022 and 67% ahead of market consensus. Gross transaction value (GTV) for existing homes grew 78% YoY to RMB 664 billion, with new homes increasing 44% YoY to RMB 278 billion. Take rates and blended take rate stabilized alongside higher service fees from the ACN network.

Q2 2023 Guidance

• Growth Outlook: Expected EHT GTV growth >20% YoY and new home GTV 30-35% YoY, in line with market conditions. Revenue guidance ranges from RMB 18.5-19 billion, indicating a 35-40% YoY increase, with normalized net profit margin exceeding 8%.
• Take Rates: Stable, contributing to improved revenue.

Financial Forecasts and Valuation

• Upgraded Projections: Forecasts for 2023/2024E adjusted net profit increased by 17%/6% YoY compared to consensus. SOTP model suggests a target price of US$25.0 per ADS (previously US$24.30), implying a 48.4% upside.
• Catalysts: Potential drivers include strong sales data and policy relaxations.

Overall Assessment

• Analysts maintain a BUY recommendation, emphasizing recovery momentum due to offline activity normalization and expansion opportunities in new business segments, particularly home furnishing.