20230519-招银国际-华润啤酒-00291.HK-A_crowded_trade_but_worthy_of_a_revisit_for_a_potentially_strong_summer_sales_5页

Summary of CR Beer (291 HK) Equity Research

Key Points from Report (Bloomberg, May 19, 2023)

• CR Beer's share price corrected by approximately 10% following softer-than-expected April sales, but channel checks indicate robust 4Q sales growth, aligning with stronger-than-anticipated sector beer production increases in March/April (20%/21% y-o-y growth).
• Analyst recommends "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$76.90 (up from HK$74.80), potentially offering 44.4% upside from the current price of HK$53.25.
• Summer sales are expected to be strong due to pent-up demand post-recovery challenges, as restocking momentum in Q2 provides a gauge for peak season demand.
• Financial forecasts show revised revenue growth of 10.8% for 2023E, driven by a 7% average selling price increase and 4% volume growth. Gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 1pp is anticipated for 2023E due to falling raw material costs.
• Long-term outlook includes a 9.5% three-year revenue CAGR (2022-25E) and 16% net profits CAGR, with 2025E valuation based on a 27.0x EV/EBITDA multiple.
• Risk factors include uneven consumer spending recovery skewed toward services and small-ticket premiumization, which could favor the company.
• Financial highlights: Revenue targets exceed consensus, with projected net profit growth of 18.9% for 2023E and steady margin improvements; ROE and debt-to-equity ratios show positive trends.
• Overall, the stock is positioned as a leading buy in the sector, benefiting from operational strengths and market positioning, supported by buy recommendations on peers like Tsingtao.