国际清算银行-新兴市场国家汇率、资本流动和金融状况方面的近期经验教训（英）-2023.11-9页_719kb

EMEs faced increased exchange rate volatility and capital flows during global monetary tightening in 2022-23 due to high inflation and US dollar strength. Historically, a stronger dollar was linked to higher sovereign bond spreads in EMEs, but this correlation reversed in emerging Asia while persisting in Latin America. The divergence stems from policy responses: EME central banks in Asia employed more FX intervention and modest monetary tightening, leading to narrower bond spreads, whereas Latin American countries adopted aggressive rate hikes, resulting in currency stability but higher yields. National shocks like commodity price changes also played a role, with Asia's position as importers reducing inflation impacts. Key lessons highlight the importance of tailored macro-financial stability frameworks, utilizing policy buffers and coordinated fiscal-monetary policies to manage capital flows and inflation. Easing monetary policy is feasible in 2023, with EMEs rebuilding FX reserves to bolster future policy tools.