世界经济论坛-公路货源零碳：加快采用零排放卡车的途径（英）-2021.10-36页_10mb

Summary of "Road Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks"

Core Content

This report, produced by the World Economic Forum in partnership with McKinsey & Company, outlines the challenges and opportunities for accelerating the adoption of zero-emission (ZE) trucks in Europe to meet global climate goals by 2050. It emphasizes the need for coordinated action across the entire value chain to ensure a successful transition.

Main Viewpoints

• Road freight is the largest source of CO₂ emissions in global trade-related transport, contributing 53% of emissions today and expected to grow to 56% by 2050.
• Medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MDT/HDT) are the hardest-to-abate segment, responsible for 70% of road freight emissions.
• Zero-emission trucking is seen as a viable solution for decarbonization, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) being the two primary technologies.
• Achieving the 1.5°C pathway by 2030 requires significant investment in both ZE trucks and infrastructure, with estimates suggesting €4 billion in additional ZE truck investment and €30-40 billion in infrastructure by 2030.
• Decarbonization is not just about technology, but also about policy, financing, and infrastructure coordination across the value chain.

Key Information

1.1 Scope of Report

• Focuses on medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MDT/HDT) in Europe.
• Uses a transport database from major European fleets to assess total cost of ownership (TCO) and emission reduction potential.
• Identifies six criteria to evaluate different trucking segments for decarbonization:
  • Route length
  • Number of driver routes (1 or 2)
  • Depot-based or "floating" routes
  • Payload
  • Operator structure
  • Size of fleet by company

1.2 Current Trajectory

• By 2030, McKinsey projects that 37% of new MDT/HDT sales in Europe could be ZE trucks, equivalent to 150,000 vehicles.
• To achieve the 1.5°C target, an additional 120,000 ZE trucks per year would be needed, representing two-thirds of total truck sales.
• Infrastructure development is critical, with a need for 140,000 public and destination charging points and 1,500 hydrogen fuelling stations by 2030.

1.3 Zero-Emissions Trucking Technology

• BEVs and FCEVs are the two main ZE technologies.
• BEVs are currently more available, with several models on the market, while FCEVs are limited to one commercial model.
• BEVs benefit from lower TCO when battery size is minimized, but longer recharging times and higher battery costs remain challenges.
• FCEVs offer fast refueling and longer range, but face high hydrogen costs and limited infrastructure in Europe.
• Hydrogen pump prices are expected to drop from €10/kg in 2020 to €4/kg in 2030, and fuel-cell system costs could decrease by 70% due to increased production.

1.4 Important Nuances

• Full decarbonization depends on the entire value chain, including renewable energy supply and hydrogen production.
• Green hydrogen is necessary for FCEVs to achieve full decarbonization, but blue hydrogen and alternative fuels (e.g., biofuels, synthetic fuels) may serve as bridging solutions.
• Alternative fuels like LNG, CNG, bio-LNG, bio-CNG, and HVO biodiesel offer moderate carbon savings, but tailpipe emissions and limited supply make them less attractive in the long term.
• Regulatory and infrastructure planning is essential for grid upgrades and charging/refueling infrastructure, which are key to supporting ZE truck operations.

1.5 Six Criteria for Decarbonization Evaluation

• Route length: Shorter routes are easier to decarbonize due to the potential for smaller batteries and more predictable infrastructure needs.
• Number of driver routes: Fleets with 1 driver can utilize downtime for charging/refueling, while 2 drivers reduce downtime but increase trip duration.
• Route type: Depot-based routes allow more control over infrastructure, while floating routes require more enroute charging.
• Payload: Volume-limited routes have fewer consequences from vehicle weight, while weight-limited routes reduce hauling capacity due to powertrain weight.
• Operator structure: Private fleets offer more predictability, while 3PL (third-party logistics) must align truck availability with daily demand.
• Fleet size: Larger fleets benefit from economies of scale, while smaller fleets face higher transition risks and limited access to capital.

Key Barriers

• Lack of infrastructure: Charging and hydrogen refueling stations are insufficient to support the growth of ZE trucks.
• Financing challenges: High capital expenditure (capex) and uncertain residual values make ZE truck financing difficult.
• Technology uncertainty: Residual value issues are driven by battery degradation, fuel cell failure, and market volatility.

Priority Solutions

1. Policy frameworks: Long-term stable policies and incentives to improve total cost of ownership (TCO) for truck operators and infrastructure providers.
2. Innovative financing: Leasing models and actions to reduce residual value uncertainty.
3. Coordinated roll-out: Deploying ZE trucks and infrastructure in a synchronized manner along key corridors to support demand and supply.

Priority Pathways

1. Short-haul routes around regional hubs: Easier to decarbonize due to predictable routes, smaller batteries, and better control over infrastructure.
2. Long-haul routes along high-traffic corridors: Require reliable refueling/recharging infrastructure, making them more complex to decarbonize.

Recommendations for Key Actors

• Policy-makers: Develop long-term, stable policies and incentives to de-risk investment and support infrastructure development.
• Truck manufacturers: Accelerate innovation and production scale to lower costs and increase availability.
• Fleet operators: Invest in on-the-go infrastructure and leasing models to manage transition costs.
• Energy and infrastructure providers: Expand charging and hydrogen fuelling infrastructure and grid capacity to support ZE truck operations.
• Financial institutions: Adapt financing models to ZE truck depreciation and operating costs.
• Industry consortia: Collaborate to aggregate demand and reduce infrastructure risks.

Conclusion

The Road Freight Zero (RFZ) initiative, led by the World Economic Forum, aims to convene stakeholders and define collaborative solutions to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission trucks. The report highlights the need for coordinated action across technology, infrastructure, and policy to achieve the 1.5°C climate target and support the EU’s Green Deal objectives. The multi-technology approach is seen as essential to de-risk the transition and support a diverse range of use cases.

Acknowledgements

• The report was supported by the European Climate Foundation and knowledge partners such as the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, Material Economics, and Kühne Logistics University.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the World Economic Forum and reflects the views of the RFZ community, not necessarily those of the World Economic Forum itself or its members, partners, or stakeholders.