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International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021 Summary

Core Content

This document, International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021, provides an analysis of trade trends in the region during the year, focusing on the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health-care industry, and the role of international trade in the transition to a circular economy. It is prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and highlights both the opportunities and challenges facing the region in the context of global economic shifts.

Main Chapters and Key Points

Chapter I: Global and Regional Trade Recovery

• Global Trade Recovery:

  • World goods trade grew by 10.8% in 2021, the largest expansion since 2010, driven by easing mobility restrictions, vaccine progress, and economic stimulus measures.
  • Trade in services remains weak due to the collapse in international tourism.
  • The recovery is partly due to a low base in 2020, and risks persist from new outbreaks, supply chain disruptions, and uncertain fiscal policies.

• Regional Trade Performance:

  • Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) experienced a 25% increase in goods exports in 2021, driven by higher commodity prices, increased import demand from key markets (China, EU, US), and recovery in regional economic activity.
  • Imports grew by 32%, reflecting strong domestic demand.
  • South America recorded the highest export growth at 34%, benefiting from high commodity prices.
  • Caribbean countries saw growth due to high prices of oil, gas, and bauxite.
  • Mexico and Central America experienced moderate export growth, with imports growing over 25% in all subregions.
  • Intraregional trade increased in 2021, but the regional share in total goods exports fell to 13%, down from 21% in 2008.

• Terms of Trade:

  • Hydrocarbon exporters saw a 15% improvement in terms of trade.
  • Brazil is expected to benefit most from higher prices of iron ore, oil, and agribusiness products.
  • Central America, most Caribbean countries, and Mexico face deteriorating terms of trade due to heavy reliance on fuel and raw material imports.

• Trade Surplus and Deficit:

  • LAC is expected to report a $24 billion goods trade surplus in 2021, lower than 2020 due to increased imports.
  • MERCOSUR is projected to have a $82 billion surplus in 2021, up from $55 billion in 2020.
  • Central American and Caribbean countries will see their 2020 trade deficit widen.

• Challenges:

  • The region’s reduced intraregional trade since 2019 has weakened its export capacity.
  • The need for deeper regional integration is emphasized to achieve sustainable and transformative recovery.
  • MSMEs have been particularly affected by the loss of export capacity.

Chapter II: Regional Productive Self-Sufficiency in the Health-Care Industry

• Health-Care Industry Overview:

  • The health-care industry includes pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biopharmaceuticals, genomics, diagnostics, and digital health.
  • The industry is strategically important due to its direct impact on public health and its innovative nature.

• Global Trade in Health Products:

  • Global health industry exports reached $1.1 trillion in 2020, or 6% of world goods trade.
  • The pharmaceutical industry contributed $700 billion, while medical devices accounted for $364 billion.
  • Despite a 9% increase in health industry exports during the pandemic, the global value of goods exports fell by 7.5%.

• Regional Export Trends:

  • Pharmaceutical exports in LAC declined by 28% from a peak of $9.845 billion in 2012 to $7 billion in 2020.
  • The region has a persistent trade deficit in pharmaceuticals, with imports five times higher than exports.
  • Medical device exports increased by 86% between 2010 and 2019, reaching $16.4 billion.
  • Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico account for 58% of the region's pharmaceutical exports.
  • Costa Rica, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic dominate medical device exports, accounting for 94% of total shipments.

• Trade Concentration and Dependencies:

  • Medical device exports are heavily concentrated in the United States (89%) and China (14%).
  • Intraregional trade in medical devices is minimal, with only 2% of exports going to other LAC countries.
  • Pharmaceutical imports are mainly sourced from the European Union (50%) and the United States (19%).
  • Only 4% of imports come from within the region.

• Recommendations:

  • Regional coordination and integration are crucial for productive self-sufficiency in the health sector.
  • Policies to integrate national markets are needed to create a large, stable market for competitive production.
  • Cooperation between national regulatory authorities is a prerequisite for establishing a regional market.

Chapter III: International Trade and the Circular Economy

• Circular Economy Overview:

  • Unlike a linear economy, a circular economy focuses on reducing material use, extending product life, and recovering materials and nutrients.
  • Trade plays a key role in enabling the transfer of goods and services to countries with the necessary recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing capabilities.

• Opportunities for LAC:

  • The region has significant potential in agricultural waste valorization, especially vegetable oil residues, which can be used in food, pharmaceuticals, and bioplastics industries.
  • Pulp-paper-paperboard chains and tourism are also areas where circularity can be improved.

• Integration and Cooperation:

  • Harmonizing trade and circular economy agendas is essential for greater market access and international cooperation.
  • Incorporating circular economy principles into trade agreements can reduce trade barriers and promote sustainability.

Key Information

• Global Trade Growth:

  • World goods trade grew by 10.8% in 2021, the largest since 2010.
  • 2022 growth is projected at 4.7%, which is double the average growth rate of the previous decade.

• Regional Trade Dynamics:

  • LAC’s goods trade surplus in 2021 is $24 billion, with exports up 7% and imports up 24%.
  • Intraregional trade in manufacturing sectors (e.g., metalworking, automotive, textiles) saw significant growth in 2021.

• Health Industry Vulnerability:

  • Pharmaceutical exports are concentrated in a few countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) and heavily dependent on extraregional imports.
  • Medical devices are export-driven but highly dependent on US and Chinese markets.

• Circular Economy Potential:

  • Agricultural waste valorization is a major opportunity for LAC.
  • Trade integration with circular economy strategies can enhance sustainability and international cooperation.

Conclusion

The 2021 International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean highlights the resilient recovery of goods trade, the vulnerability of the health-care sector, and the potential for trade to support a circular economy. The report underscores the need for regional integration, cooperation in production and regulation, and strategic policy reforms to ensure sustainable and self-sufficient development in the region.