拉丁美洲经济委员会-2021年拉丁美洲和加勒比国际贸易展望：追求弹性和可持续的复苏-总结-24页_3mb

Summary of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2021

Core Content

This document, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), presents an annual analysis of international trade in the region, focusing on the recovery from the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the health-care industry's trade dynamics, and the role of international trade in the transition to a circular economy.

Main Points

A. Global and Regional Trade Recovery Amid Uncertainty

• Global Goods Trade Recovery:

  • Global goods trade volume fell by -5.3% in 2020, the smallest contraction since 2009.
  • The recovery in 2021 was strong, with a projected 10.8% growth, the largest since 2010.
  • Trade in services has not recovered as much as goods, due to tourism restrictions.

• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Performance:

  • Goods exports are expected to grow by 25% in value terms in 2021, driven by higher commodity prices, increased demand from key partners, and economic recovery.
  • Goods imports are projected to increase by 32%, with price increases playing a major role.
  • South America is expected to have the highest export growth at 34%, due to its commodity-based specialization.
  • Caribbean countries may benefit from high prices of oil, gas, and bauxite.
  • Mexico and Central America are expected to see moderate export growth, but import growth is stronger.
  • Intraregional trade has recovered from a 2019 decline, but the regional market share in total exports is still 13%, down from 21% in 2008.

• Trade Surpluses and Deficits:

  • LAC is expected to report a US$24 billion surplus in goods trade in 2021.
  • MERCOSUR surplus is projected to rise from US$55 billion to US$82 billion.
  • Central America and the Caribbean will see their 2020 trade deficit widen.

• Challenges and Risks:

  • The recovery is not uniform, with services trade still lagging.
  • Uncertainty remains due to unpredictable tourism reopening, uneven vaccine distribution, and supply chain disruptions.
  • High commodity prices are a key driver of recovery, but there is no evidence of a new super-cycle.

B. Regional Productive Self-Sufficiency in the Health-Care Industry

• The health-care industry is critical due to its innovative nature and strategic importance for public health.

• Global health-care trade in 2020 was US$1.1 trillion, representing 6% of global goods trade.

• Pharmaceutical exports in LAC:

  • Accounted for 1.1% of global exports between 2018 and 2020.
  • Exports declined by 28% from US$9.845 billion in 2012 to US$7 billion in 2020.
  • Persistent trade deficit in pharmaceuticals, with imports being almost five times exports in 2020.
  • Limited regional production of pharmaceuticals, with only 1-2% of inputs coming from the region.

• Medical Devices Exports:

  • Regional exports of medical devices grew by 86% between 2010 and 2019, reaching US$16.4 billion.
  • High concentration in a few countries: Costa Rica, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic account for 94% of the total value of shipments.
  • Exports are heavily directed to the U.S., with 89% of shipments going there in 2020.
  • Intraregional trade in medical devices is minimal, at just 2%.
  • China became a major supplier, with its share of purchases increasing from 14% in 2019 to over 32% in 2020.

• Regional Coordination and Integration:

  • Strategic importance of developing a regional health-care market to reduce dependence on extraregional imports.
  • Need for greater regional coordination in trade, production, and health policies.
  • Mexico's initiative to develop a regional health-care self-sufficiency plan under CELAC leadership.

• Challenges:

  • Small domestic markets in most LAC countries make it difficult to support competitive production scales.
  • Regulatory cooperation is essential to create a regional market for health products.

C. International Trade and the Circular Economy

• Circular Economy aims to reduce material use, extend product life, and recover materials.
• Trade plays a key role in enabling resource transfers between countries with different capacities in recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing.
• Potential for LAC:
  • Agricultural waste valorization, especially from vegetable oil extraction, offers opportunities for renewable inputs in food and pharmaceutical industries and bioplastics.
  • Pulp-paper and tourism are also sectors with potential for circular development.
• Integration with Trade Agreements:
  • Embedding circular economy principles in trade agreements could enhance market access, cooperation, and international standard harmonization.
  • This would also help reduce trade barriers and promote sustainable development.

Key Information

• The report was prepared by Mario Castillo, with technical coordination by Keiji Inoue.
• Contributors include staff members from ECLAC, UNIDO, and consultants.
• Data sources include UN Comtrade Database, World Trade Monitor, and regional statistical institutes.
• The report emphasizes the need for deeper regional integration in the context of global supply chain disruptions and increased strategic autonomy by major economies.
• Recommendations include:
  • Enhancing regional coordination in trade, production, and health.
  • Developing regional health-care self-sufficiency plans.
  • Incorporating circular economy principles into trade agreements to promote sustainable development and market expansion.