战略与国际研究中心-Military-Expenditures-And-Arms-Transfers-in-the-Middle-East_64页_196kb

Summary of "Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers in the Middle East"

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and published in May 1996, provides an in-depth analysis of military expenditures and arms transfers in the Middle East, focusing on the region's military capabilities, procurement priorities, and the role of international arms sales in shaping these capabilities. It is divided into four main parts, each addressing different sub-regions and aspects of military spending and equipment acquisition.

Main Points and Key Information

Part One: Priorities and Non-Priorities

• Qualitative Weaknesses in Middle Eastern Military Forces:

  • Most Middle Eastern militaries suffer from over-centralized command structures, lack of strategic assessment capabilities, and deficiencies in command, control, communications, intelligence, and battle damage assessment.
  • Issues include shallow offensive and defensive battlefields, low-quality manpower, poor leadership, and insufficient non-commissioned officer (NCO) and technician cadres.
  • Weaknesses in night and all-weather warfare, air-to-air combat training, and integration of land-based air defense systems.
  • Lack of effective long-range strike systems and combined operations capabilities.

• Potential Qualitative Advantages of the "Revolution in Military Affairs":

  • Emphasizes the integration of advanced technologies and systems, such as C4I/BM/T/BDA, and the ability to conduct beyond visual range warfare.
  • Highlights the importance of maneuver, deception, and strategic/tactical innovation.
  • Focuses on creating joint forces, interoperable systems, and realistic combat training.

• Key Force Improvement Priorities:

  • Establishing effective planning systems for collective defense.
  • Enhancing C4I and sensor integration for air and naval combat.
  • Developing joint air defense and attack capabilities.
  • Improving cross-reinforcement and tactical mobility.
  • Creating joint training, support, and infrastructure.
  • Deploying joint land defense forces for the Kuwaiti/Northwestern Saudi borders.

• Procurement Priorities:

  • Acquiring heavy armor, attack helicopters, and mobile air defense systems.
  • Ensuring interoperability with US power projection forces.
  • Prioritizing precision-guided weapons and anti-armor/anti-ship capabilities.
  • Focusing on maritime surveillance and mine detection systems.
  • Enhancing urban and border security equipment.

• Non-Procurement Priorities:

  • Emphasizing unique and developmental equipment.
  • Focusing on non-interoperable weapons and systems.
  • Highlighting the importance of submarines and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) systems.
  • Considering the impact of new equipment on maintenance, sustainability, and training.

• Sales Not Based on Needs and Effectiveness:

  • Arms sales in the Middle East are heavily influenced by political factors and state intervention.
  • Suppliers often prioritize "glitter factor" weapons and special deals over actual military effectiveness.
  • Many countries prefer to minimize life cycle costs and full service needs until the sale is completed.
  • There is a low tolerance for platform upgrades and a high demand for commissions and offset arrangements.

Part Two: North Africa

• Military Equipment in North Africa:
  • The document provides data on the total armor, tanks, artillery, fixed combat aircraft, and naval ships in the Maghreb region as of 1995.
  • It includes detailed statistics on military spending and arms imports in countries such as Morocco, Algeria, and Libya from 1983 to 1993.
  • The data shows that military spending and arms imports are closely related to countries' gross domestic product (GDP) and total exports.

Part Three: Arab-Israeli

• Arab-Israeli Armored and Artillery Forces:

  • A comparison of military capabilities between Israel and Arab states (Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon) is provided.
  • Israel's armored forces are noted for their high-quality tanks and true armored fighting vehicles (AFVs).
  • Israel's artillery forces are highlighted for their modern self-propelled artillery and multiple rocket launchers.
  • The document includes a detailed analysis of air forces, including high-quality combat aircraft and attack helicopters.

• Military Spending and Arms Imports Trends:

  • Trends in military spending and arms import deliveries from 1983 to 1993 are outlined.
  • The percentage of GDP spent on military forces is analyzed.
  • New arms agreements and deliveries between 1987 and 1994 are presented.

Part Four: Gulf

• Combat Equipment Strength in the Gulf:

  • The document provides a comprehensive overview of the major measures of combat equipment strength in the Gulf region in 1996, including main battle tanks, combat aircraft, and other armored vehicles.
  • Data on the total operational tanks and other armored vehicles in Gulf forces from 1990 to 1995 is presented.
  • The focus is on the evolution of military capabilities and the impact of arms sales on these forces.

• Arms Sales Agreements and Deliveries:

  • The total arms sales agreements and deliveries in the Gulf region from 1987 to 1994 are detailed.
  • The document compares the volume of arms sales agreements with deliveries, emphasizing the importance of timely and effective implementation of these agreements.

• Export Income and Supplier Countries:

  • Real export income for Iran and Iraq is discussed.
  • The arms sales agreements by supplier countries for both Iran and Iraq are outlined, highlighting the role of major suppliers in the region.

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of modernizing military forces in the Middle East through the adoption of advanced technologies and systems, while also highlighting the challenges in achieving this due to political influences and the prioritization of "glitter factor" weapons. It provides a detailed analysis of military spending and arms transfers across different sub-regions, offering insights into the strategic implications and the need for effective force planning and procurement strategies.