斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Arms-Flows-to-South-East-Asia_61页_2mb

Summary of "ARMS FLOWS TO SOUTH EAST ASIA"

Core Content

This report, authored by Siemon T. Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), provides an analysis of military spending and arms acquisitions in South East Asia from 2009 to 2018. It explores the evolving security environment, the role of international actors, and the implications of regional military build-up.

Main Points

1. Security Environment in South East Asia

• The security environment in South East Asia has experienced both continuity and transformation since the 1990s.
• The region has faced internal conflicts, territorial disputes, and external security challenges, particularly with China's growing military presence and claims in the South China Sea.
• In the late 1990s, the region was characterized by internal conflicts and interstate tensions, but progress was made in resolving these issues.
• The 2000s saw a relatively stable and peaceful environment, with ASEAN promoting regional cooperation and the signing of agreements such as the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
• However, tensions have resurfaced, particularly due to China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea and the region's increasing militarization.

2. Military Spending and Arms Acquisitions

• Military spending in South East Asia increased by at least 33% between 2009 and 2018.
• Arms acquisitions in the last decade were approximately double those of the previous decade.
• The growth in military spending and arms acquisitions is attributed to perceptions of growing insecurity, especially in response to China's rise as a regional military power.
• The total inventory of armed forces in the region grew by 33% from 2008 to 2017, indicating a significant military build-up.

3. Role of Suppliers

• Arms are primarily acquired through imports, with major suppliers including the United States, Russia, China, and European countries.
• The report highlights the diversity of suppliers and the types of arms acquired, emphasizing the shift towards advanced weaponry such as anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems.
• SIPRI uses a unique method to measure arms transfers using the Trend Indicator Value (TIV), which is not related to sales prices.

4. Regional and National Dynamics

• While ten of the eleven South East Asian states are part of ASEAN, they do not always act in unison on security issues.
• Each state has its own security agenda and perception of threats, leading to varied spending and acquisition patterns.
• China has played a central role in driving military spending increases, particularly among states with territorial claims in the South China Sea.
• The lack of transparency in defense and foreign policy, as well as the absence of agreed mechanisms for managing regional tensions, raises concerns about potential conflict escalation.

5. International Actors and Their Involvement

• The United States, Japan, India, and European states have increased their engagement with South East Asia, especially in response to China's military assertiveness.
• The U.S. has implemented a "pivot to Asia" strategy, including freedom of navigation operations and strengthening military ties with South East Asian states.
• Japan has relaxed its arms export policies, increasing arms sales and aid to the region, partly to counter China's influence.
• European states, including France and the UK, have also engaged more with the region, either through military deployments or arms exports, often seen as promoting European military equipment.

Key Information

• Countries in South East Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Viet Nam.
• SIPRI's Role: SIPRI provides data on arms transfers and military expenditure, using open sources and specific definitions.
• TIV (Trend Indicator Value): A method used by SIPRI to measure the volume of arms transfers, not the monetary value.
• China's Influence: China's rise as a military power and its claims in the South China Sea have significantly impacted the security dynamics and military spending of South East Asian states.
• Economic Context: Despite economic growth, many South East Asian states remain developing countries with high poverty rates.
• Transparency Issues: Military spending and defense policy transparency in the region is limited, which complicates efforts to manage regional tensions and prevent conflict escalation.

Conclusion

• While military spending in South East Asia has increased, it remains below the global average as a percentage of GDP.
• The report warns that the military build-up, combined with unresolved territorial disputes and lack of transparency, could lead to misunderstandings and potential conflict.
• The emphasis is on the need for greater transparency, dialogue, and cooperation to manage the region's security challenges effectively.