20211112-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2021.11.12_16页_364kb

Wheat Outlook Summary: November 2021

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global wheat market conditions for the marketing year 2021/22, including price trends, supply and use projections, and the impact of wheat prices on retail food prices.

Main Points

• U.S. Wheat Prices: The 2021/22 Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP) is projected at $6.90 per bushel, up 20 cents from the previous year, due to strong farmgate prices and rising futures and cash prices. The September 2021 all-wheat farmgate price reached $7.55, a 63% increase from September 2020.
• Domestic Outlook:
  • Winter wheat plantings for 2022/23 are 91% complete in the top 18 producing states, slightly behind the 5-year average and the same point last year.
  • Seed use for 2021/22 is revised upward by 4 million bushels to 66 million, driven by expectations of a larger planted area.
  • All-wheat exports are reduced by 15 million bushels to 860 million, with HRS and White wheat seeing the largest reductions.
  • All-wheat imports are reduced by 10 million bushels to 115 million, with HRS and Durum showing the most significant declines.
  • Total food use is adjusted lower by 2 million bushels to 962 million, with Durum food use returning to a more normal level after a spike in the previous year.
• Global Wheat Production: Global wheat production is estimated at 755.3 million MT, down slightly by 0.6 million MT from the previous month, but still a record high. The EU and UK saw reductions due to lower yields, while Russia partially offset these declines with higher production.
• Global Wheat Consumption: Total global wheat consumption is adjusted down by 371,000 MT to 787.4 million MT, mainly due to reduced feed and residual use. However, global wheat trade is projected to increase, despite the production decline, driven by strong export demand and higher international prices.
• Global Wheat Trade: Global wheat trade for 2021/22 is projected to be higher, with exports reaching 205.0 million MT and imports at 201.1 million MT. Major exporters like the EU, Russia, and Canada saw increased trade activity.
• Global Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are down 1.4 million MT to 275.8 million MT, with major exporters experiencing significant declines. Some importing countries, like Algeria and Saudi Arabia, saw increases in ending stocks.

Key Information

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Projections

Global Wheat Production and Consumption

• Global Wheat Production: 755.3 million MT (down 0.6 million MT from October).
• Global Wheat Consumption: 787.4 million MT (down 371,000 MT from October).
• Global Wheat Trade: 205.0 million MT (up 3.2 million MT from October).

By-Class Wheat Projections

Wheat Price Trends (FOB Quotes)

Impact on Retail Food Prices

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): CPI for food is up 4.6% in September 2021 compared to the same month in the previous year, the highest year-over-year growth in 10 years.
• Pass-Through to Retail Prices: The report analyzes how wheat price increases have affected retail food prices, noting that while producer prices have risen significantly, consumer prices have increased at a relatively normal rate. For example, the CPI for flour and prepared flour mixes is up 4.1%, while the CPI for cereals and cereal products is up 1.4%.

Conclusion

The report highlights the strong price trends in the U.S. and global wheat markets, driven by production issues and strong demand. These price increases have had a noticeable impact on producer prices, but the pass-through to retail food prices has been less pronounced. The outlook for U.S. wheat prices remains robust, with continued strength expected in the coming months.