美联储-地缘政治风险与全球银行业（英）-2025.8_77页_1mb

Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking Response: This paper examines how U.S. global banks respond to elevated geopolitical risks, using supervisory data and newly constructed geopolitical risk indices. Banks reduce cross-border lending to high-risk countries but maintain credit access through local affiliates due to the limited liability of local funding, which is not repaid if expropriation occurs. This asymmetric response is distinct from reactions to other macroeconomic risks like sovereign or macro risks. Geopolitical risk also spills over to domestic credit supply, reducing lending significantly through affiliate operations for banks with higher exposures. A stylized model shows that funding structures and expropriation risk explain the divergence in how banks allocate credit across operations. These findings highlight the critical role of global banks in transmitting geopolitical instability to domestic economies and emphasize the unique challenges posed by geopolitical risks, which are often under-discussed in traditional economic literature.