20230601-IMF-Quasi-Fiscal_Implications_of_Central_Bank_Crisis_Interventions_Case_Studies_27页_1mb

报告摘要

This paper analyzes central bank interventions during fiscal crises, focusing on quasi-fiscal implications in four jurisdictions. Case studies examine COVID-19 responses, comparing them to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The interventions involve substantial balance sheet expansions, supported by fiscal coordination and guarantees, which pose risks to public finances if not managed properly.

Balance sheet expanded by 20.5% of GDP through new programs, primarily funded by commercial bank reserves.
Key mechanisms included quantitative easing (QE) targeting yield curves and credit for lending programs.
Governance involved fiscal indemnification for losses, and coordination with the Treasury helped manage exit strategies.
Transparency: Regular updates on risks, but exit flexibility highlighted challenges in reducing balance sheet size.

Balance sheet doubled during COVID due to credit support programs and private securities purchases.
Shift to peso-denominated assets increased financial risks; transparency was adequate but unclear on fiscal guarantees.
Exit strategies emphasize gradual reduction, but risks remain from market valuation changes and potential losses on bond holdings.

Balance sheet expanded by 14% of GDP, building on GFC inflations from Bank of England asset holdings.
Fiscal coordination is strong, with indemnification of losses through the Asset Purchase Facility (APF).
Exit strategies involve active asset sales, driven by monetary policy goals, but losses from gilt holdings challenge fiscal accounts.

Balance sheet grew 15% of GDP via Treasuries and MBS purchases, with significant fiscal loss protection.
Programs structured with variable interest entities (VIEs) insulated risks through Treasury guarantees, and the Treasury General Account (TGA) was heavily utilized for pre-financing.
Transparency and accountability are upheld through reporting; exit strategies aim for market-led reductions to mitigate fiscal risks.

Central bank interventions are effective but carry quasi-fiscal implications, requiring robust governance and coordination to mitigate risks and ensure smooth exits.
Transparency and enhanced accountability mechanisms are crucial for managing potential losses and maintaining public trust.
Future policy should balance intervention effectiveness with long-term fiscal sustainability, particularly in scenarios of balance sheet reduction and interest rate movements.

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