20220830-招银国际-中国财险-02328.HK-Strong_beat_in_1H22_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Strong Profit Growth in 1H22: PICC P&C reported a 15% YoY increase in profit, representing 70% of FY22E consensus and translating into 37.5% YoY growth in 2Q22.
Underwriting Profit Surge: Underwriting profit rose 53% YoY in 1H22 and 160% YoY in 2Q22, significantly contributing to the profit growth.
Combined Ratio Improvement: The combined ratio improved to 96.0% in 1H22, 1.2pts YoY, outperforming the industry average of 97.3% and major peers.
Loss Reserve Ratio Increase: The loss reserve ratio increased by 4.5pts HoH or 4.2pts YoY, indicating a stronger buffer for future loss absorption.

Combined Ratio Declined: From 96.7% in 1H21 to 95.4% in 1H22, a 1.3pts YoY improvement.
Premium Income Growth: Auto premium income increased by 6.7% YoY, driven by a 4.7% YoY rise in the number of insured cars.
NEV Insurance: Combined ratio of NEV insurance in 1H22 was 96.5%, aligning with management guidance for 1Q22.

Underwriting Margin Expansion: Non-auto underwriting margin expanded due to more disciplined expense management.
Combined Ratio Improvement: Non-auto combined ratio improved by 1.1pts YoY to 96.8%.
Expense Ratio Decline: Expense ratio dropped by 1.5pts YoY to 22.5%.
Segment Growth: Non-auto business grew 12.7% YoY, with significant contributions from:
- A&H insurance: 15% YoY
- Agricultural insurance: 24% YoY
- Credit guarantee insurance: 130% YoY
Credit Guarantee Insurance Margin: Improved by 26pts YoY to 36.6% in 1H22.

YTD NAT CAT Losses: Remain manageable, with RMB1.27bn in 1H22, an 7.6% YoY increase.
July-Aug 2022 Losses: Significantly lower than July 2021 losses, which were attributed to droughts.

P/E Ratio (FY22E): 6.1x
P/BV Ratio (FY22E): 0.7x
Dividend Yield: 7%
ROE (FY22E): 12.1%, with a 13.5% projection for FY24E.
Target Price: HK$12.62 (Previous TP: HK$12.62), with a 55% upside from current price HK$8.14.
Stock Performance:
- 1-month: -5.4%
- 3-months: 0.1%
- 6-months: -4.6%

Market Cap: HK$53,536.2 million
Shareholding Structure:
- PICC Group: 69.0%
- Free Float: 31.0%

Rating: BUY (Maintain)
Reason: Expected double-digit premium income growth in 2H22 and continual YoY expansion of underwriting margin.

China Insurance - P&C growth rebound; Life insurance growth slowed into 1Q22.
PICC P&C - Expected CoR improvement in FY22.
PICC P&C - CoR improvement in 1Q22.

Net Profit (RMB mn): Increased from 20,868 in FY20A to 32,957 in FY24E.
EPS (Reported): Ranged from 0.9 in FY20A to 1.5 in FY24E.
Premium Income (RMB mn): Grew from 393,127 in FY21A to 521,426 in FY24E.
Combined Ratio (%): Improved from 98.9 in FY21A to 98.5 in FY24E.

Total Assets: Increased from 596,081 in FY19A to 911,750 in FY24E.
Total Liabilities: Rose from 426,127 in FY19A to 657,823 in FY24E.
Shareholders' Equity: Grew from 169,953 in FY19A to 253,927 in FY24E.

The report contains general information and is not tailored for individual investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report.
The report is for informational purposes only and not an offer to trade.

The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
No compensation was directly or indirectly related to the views in the report.
The analyst has not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not trade within 3 business days after the report.

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