2022-05-15-瑞士信贷集团-4月台湾地区销售情况_2022年第2季度封锁和成本压力对供应链构成压力_21页_1mb

报告摘要

Asia Semiconductor Sector Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the April 2022 sales performance of 160 Taiwan tech companies, highlighting the impact of China lockdowns and global supply chain disruptions on the semiconductor and downstream sectors. It also outlines sector-specific trends and future expectations for the second quarter (2Q22) and beyond.

Main Points

April Sales Performance:
- Overall, April sales for the Taiwan tech chain declined by 16% MoM, slightly below the seasonal decline of 14% MoM.
- 85% of companies reported sales below the street's expectations for 2Q22, with only 15% exceeding them.
- Semiconductor companies outperformed downstream counterparts, with -5% MoM vs -19% MoM respectively, due to less exposure to production disruptions.
Sector Performance:
- Foundry sales were flat MoM and on track for the quarter, supported by firm pricing and full utilisation.
- Back-end sales were slightly down -5.3% MoM but still in-line with expectations.
- Downstream sectors faced significant challenges, including:
  - Notebook ODMs (-35% MoM vs seasonal -1%)
  - Cloud (-13% MoM vs seasonal +3%)
  - Components (-12% MoM vs seasonal -1%)
  - Packaging & Testing (-17% MoM vs seasonal -1%)
  - Display (-23% MoM vs seasonal -6%)
Recovery Outlook:
- Production in China is slowly resuming in May, but logistics bottlenecks and material shortages continue to hinder full recovery.
- The tech chain expects to catch up one month of lost volume over the next 3-4 months, but the recovery is expected to be sub-seasonal in 2Q22.
- There is a risk of inventory adjustments and utilisation cuts in 4Q22/1H23, which may affect margins.
Key Factors Affecting the Sector:
- China lockdowns have disrupted downstream production and logistics.
- Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflationary pressures have also impacted the supply chain and demand.
- Semiconductor demand in areas like auto, industrial, and cloud continues to offset weakness in consumer tech (PC, Android, TV).
Stock Picks:
- The report recommends focusing on companies with better pricing power and product cycles to mitigate cyclical risks.
- Top picks include:
  - TSMC (positive mix, rising ASPs, share gains)
  - GlobalWafers (rising wafer pricing)
  - Alchip/GUC (growing HPC pipeline)
  - ASpeed (cloud growth)

Key Figures

Sector	April Actual (NT$mn)	April CS Estimate	% of CS Qtr	% of Cons Qtr	QTD Seasonal	April vs Seasonal
TSMC	172,561	172,600	33.2%	33.6%	30.9%	-0.0%
UMC	22,796	22,750	32.8%	33.0%	31.9%	-0.3%
Vanguard	4,486	4,500	29.1%	30.0%	31.2%	-1.5%
PSMC	7,327	7,180	35.1%	35.9%	30.5%	+0.2%
Nanya Tech	6,598	6,700	25.5%	30.0%	26.1%	-2.1%
Foundries	213,768	213,730	33.2%	33.6%	30.9%	-0.3%
ASE IC ATM	30,427	30,400	34.2%	34.8%	30.9%	-0.3%
ASE Consol.	48,643	48,700	32.4%	33.0%	31.9%	-0.1%
Powertech	7,330	7,300	32.3%	34.5%	31.8%	+0.3%
Total Sales	344,757	344,221	33.2%	30.7%	32.4%	-2.5%

Key Takeaways

Semiconductor sector remains resilient, with foundries and back-end suppliers maintaining strong pricing and utilisation.
Downstream sectors are heavily impacted by China lockdowns, leading to sub-seasonal performance in April.
Recovery is expected in late May/June, but logistics and material supply constraints may delay full rebound.
Cloud and data center demand remains strong, despite China lockdowns, and is expected to continue driving growth.
Inventory management and cost pressures are key concerns, with potential for price erosion and margin compression in 2023.
The report suggests a mild correction scenario for 2023, with low-teens P/E levels, but also highlights the possibility of a bear case if inventory corrections are more severe.

Outlook

2Q22 growth is expected to be mid-single digit for semiconductors, with foundries on track for +3-6% QoQ growth.
Downstream recovery is expected to be mild, with some subsectors showing better performance than others.
The cloud sector remains a key growth driver, with hyperscalers increasing capex significantly in 1Q22.
The full year outlook is moderate, with a -6% YoY forecast due to ongoing supply chain issues and reduced consumer demand.

Conclusion

The Taiwan semiconductor sector is on track for 2Q22, driven by strong demand in auto, industrial, and cloud. However, downstream sectors are heavily impacted by China lockdowns and global supply chain issues, leading to sub-seasonal performance in April. The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of 2022, with potential for recovery but also inventory corrections and margin pressures. The key focus is on companies with pricing power and strong product pipelines, such as TSMC, GlobalWafers, Alchip, and ASpeed, to navigate the current market conditions.