2021-11-16-瑞士信贷集团-10月台湾销售_供应限制使本季度后端负荷增加_23页_1mb

Asia Semiconductor Sector Summary

Core Content

The report provides an analysis of October 2021 sales performance for the Taiwan semiconductor and technology sector, highlighting the impact of supply constraints and the shifting seasonality of demand. It also includes sector-specific insights, stock recommendations, and expectations for the remainder of the year and into 2022.

Key Findings

• Overall Performance:
  October sales for the overall tech supply chain declined by 6% MoM, below seasonal expectations of +2% MoM. This decline was driven by softer demand from Hon Hai due to supply constraints and reduced consumer demand.

• Sector Trends:

  • Foundries: Sales declined by 10% MoM vs. seasonal +7%, due to extended production lead times and delayed shipment timing.
  • IC Design: Sales dropped by 13% MoM vs. seasonal -7%, affected by slower Android smartphone demand.
  • EMS: Sales fell by 6% MoM vs. seasonal +1%, due to Apple's chipset constraints limiting Hon Hai's shipments.
  • Cloud: Sales increased by 5% MoM vs. seasonal -3%, driven by strong demand from US hyperscalers and improved component supply.
  • PC/NB ODMs: Sales declined by 11% MoM vs. seasonal -14%, but still outperformed seasonal expectations due to improving chipset supply and strong PC demand.
  • Memory: Sales dropped by 2% MoM vs. seasonal -7%, but the sector is expected to see stable shipment volumes despite price corrections.

• Supply Constraints:
  Ongoing shortages of semiconductor chips are delaying product shipments and affecting downstream sectors. TI chips remain a major bottleneck, but the situation is expected to improve in 2H22. Premium models in iOS devices, auto, NB, and audio are less affected by supply constraints.

• Semiconductor Sales:
  Semiconductor sales declined by 8% MoM in October, below seasonal expectations. However, the sector is still on track for the 4Q21 sales guidance, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and improving utilization.

Stock Picks

The report highlights the following companies as preferred investments:

• TSMC: Strong pricing leverage and advanced technology drivers.
• Vanguard: Manageable 8" expansion and rising wafer pricing.
• Mediatek: Continued growth in 5G and non-mobile segments.
• GlobalWafers: Rising wafer pricing.
• ASpeed: Cloud server growth and higher platform pricing.
• Alchip: Growing HPC pipeline to offset Phytium's impact.

Sector Analysis

Back-end Companies

• ASE IC ATM: Sales increased by 0.5% MoM, slightly ahead of flat guidance.
• Powertech: Sales rebounded by +4.4% MoM, keeping it ahead of flat to up guidance.
• ASE Consol.: Sales declined by 1.8% MoM, slightly behind flat guidance.

Front-end Companies

• TSMC: October sales declined by 11.9% MoM but still showed 12.8% YoY growth. Sales are expected to rebound to meet 4Q21 guidance.
• UMC: Sales increased by 2.2% MoM, in line with guidance.
• Nanya Tech: Sales declined by 6.1% MoM, behind guidance.
• Foundries (Ex-TSMC): Sales were flat MoM, above seasonal expectations, supported by continued inventory builds.

Downstream Components

• Catcher: Sales were 31% / 24% of CS/street estimates, below expectations.
• TPK: Sales were 31% / 24% of CS/street estimates, below expectations.
• HuLane: Sales showed 20%+ YoY growth, driven by aggressive inventory builds and share gains in China.
• Chin-Poon: Sales declined 13% YoY, but management raised ASP for the second time this year, supporting margin recovery.

Outlook

• Supply Chain Improvements: The semiconductor supply tightness should support business growth into early 2022, with foundries and fabless companies expected to benefit from full utilization and firm pricing.
• Inventory and Demand Risks: Rising inventory and potential consumer demand deceleration could pose challenges later in 2022.
• Technology Drivers: Continued growth in cloud/server, IoT, auto, and 5G is expected to drive sector strength in 2022.
• Hyperscaler Capex: Global hyperscalers are increasing capital expenditures, supporting the cloud super-cycle.

Summary Table

Analysts

• Randy Abrams, CFA: Lead analyst for the report.
• Haas Liu: Supporting analyst.
• Angela Dai: Supporting analyst.

Conclusion

The semiconductor sector in Taiwan experienced a sub-seasonal decline in October, primarily due to supply constraints. However, the sector is expected to recover and perform better in the fourth quarter, supported by improved supply and continued demand in cloud/server, IoT, and auto. The report highlights the importance of tracking supply chain dynamics and recommends focusing on companies with pricing leverage and strong growth drivers.