20220921-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_958kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI Fixed Income Department, providing insights into the current market conditions, key price movements, and investment recommendations for Chinese and offshore credit instruments. It includes market observations, macroeconomic news, and analysis from both the trading desk and analysts.

Key Market Observations

Overall Market Activity: Markets were quiet this morning, with PB punting interests on LZINVE 4.15 22 following the Lanzhou government's cooperation agreement with China National I&G.
SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises): Active short coverings were observed on SOEs such as HUADIA, RLCONS, and ICBCAS.
AMCs (Asset Management Companies): HRINTHs and CCAMCLs remain the preferred choices. The market has shown a rebound, though the levels are still below those from late June 2022.
CHINSC: Media reported that China SCE plans to issue RMB1-1.5bn (cUSD143-214mn) CBIC-backed onshore bonds. The issuance is still preliminary, and the market appears to have over-reacted. CHINSC'23/25 rallied by ~6-8pts.
Other Instruments:
- COGARDs were down 1-2pts due to S&P's downgrade.
- FOSUNI curve was mixed, with 25s down 2.5pts.
- EHOUSE'24 and AACTEC'31 were down by ~2.5pts.
- STCITYs/SANLTDs rose by 0.5-2pts.
- GRNLGR 22-23s increased by 1-1.5pts.
- LIHHK 24-25s rose by 1-1.5pts.
- Indian and Indonesian HYs were sideways.
- Renewable names slightly rebounded, with GRNKENs/AZUPOEs up 0.5pts.

Top Movers

Top Performers

Name	Price	Change
CSCHCN 9 10/09/24	46.3	4.4
GRNLGR 5.6 11/13/22	76.4	1.4
LIHHK 4 1/2 06/26/25	76.4	1.2
LIHHK 4 7/8 07/15/24	85.4	1.2
FOSUNI 5.95 01/29/23	80.8	1.2

Top Underperformers

Name	Price	Change
ZHLGHD 9 3/4 12/31/23	21.0	-3.3
JIAYUA 12 10/30/22	12.5	-2.6
FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25	36.7	-2.5
EHOUSE 7.6 06/10/22	26.1	-2.5
FOSUNI 6.85 07/02/22	42.3	-2.3

Macro News Recap

U.S. Markets: Closed lower, with S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq down due to expectations of a 75bps rate hike by the FOMC.
PBOC LPR: Maintained 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.65% and 4.3%, respectively.
Mortgage Rates: Lowered to 4.1% in 86 major cities.
Germany PPI: Surged to 45.8% yoy in August due to energy price increases.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Continued to rise, with the yield curve flattening to 3.99%, 3.75%, 3.57%, and 3.59% for 2, 5, 10, and 30-year maturities, respectively.

CMBI Investment Recommendations

Chinese AMCs

Preferred Papers: HRINTHs and CCAMCLs due to government support and strategic importance.
Top Picks:
- HRINTH 4 1/4 PERP: Subordinated, offer price 75.0, YTW 14.2%, T-spread 990.4, modified duration 2.6, next call 30/9/2025.
- HRINTH 5.5% 01/16/2025: Sr Unsecured, offer price 91.8, YTW 9.2%, T-spread 518.1, modified duration 2.1.
- CCAMCL 5.2% 12/05/2029: Sr Unsecured, offer price 91.6, YTW 6.6%, T-spread 312.8, modified duration 5.8.
- CCAMCL 3% 01/20/31: Sr Unsecured, offer price 77.4, YTW 6.5%, T-spread 301.9, modified duration 7.
- CCAMCL 4.4% PERP: Jr Subordinated, offer price 92.4, YTW 6.4%, T-spread 260.8, modified duration 3.5.
- GRWALL 3.95% PERP: Sr Unsecured, offer price 90.8, YTW 8.9%, T-spread 462.7, modified duration 1.7.

CHINSC

Preliminary Issuance: China SCE is planning to issue RMB1-1.5bn (cUSD143-214mn) CBIC-backed onshore bonds.
Market Reaction: CHINSC'23/25 rallied ~6-8pts, but the market may have over-reacted.
Puttable Bonds: The 20Zhongjun03 put is scheduled for 21/10/2022, with a final put amount to be determined.
Onshore and Offshore Bonds:
- Onshore Bonds: Total of RMB4326bn, with RMB2,000bn in 20Zhongjun03.
- Offshore Bonds: Total of USD2,300mn, with key maturities in 2023-2026.
- New Issues:
  - Jiangsu Liyang High-tech Zone Holding Group Co., Ltd.: USD200mn, 3yr, 6.2% coupon.
  - Tianjin Rail Transit Urban Development Co., Ltd.: USD107.8mn, 364d, 6.2% coupon.
- Pipeline:
  - Nanjing Pukou Economic Development Co., Ltd.: USD3yr, IPG 5.45%, no size yet.

Market Conditions and Color

Onshore Primary Issuances: 98 credit bonds issued yesterday, totaling RMB87bn. Month-to-date issuance reached RMB846bn, a 11.6% yoy decrease.
Key Transactions:
- CHFOTN: China Fortune Land Development sold Sanpu Witt Industrial Park to local state buyers, valued at RMB15bn (USD2.1bn).
- COGARD: Raised RMB1.5bn via CBIC-backed MTN, coupon rate 3.2%, but was downgraded by Moody's.
- CSIPRO: Completed redemption of USD200mn 5.75% senior preps.
- HENLND: Obtained HKD100mn bilateral loan from CCB Asia.
- MEDCO: Expected to improve cost efficiency by USD39mn annually through USD1.36bn acquisition.
- SUNAC: Offshore bondholder group supports restructuring plan.
- YUEXIU: Plans to issue up to RMB2.6bn (cUSD370mn) onshore bonds with 5- and 7-year tranches.

Important Disclosures

Disclaimer: The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
Author Certification: The author certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have market-making or investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
Distribution Restrictions:
- In the UK, the report is only for those falling under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order.
- In the U.S., it is only for major institutional investors.
- In Singapore, it is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser.

Contact Information

Fixed Income Department:
Tel: (852) 3761 8867 / (852) 3657 6291
Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk
Authors:
- Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 / glennko@cmbi.com.hk
- Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 / cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
Company: CMB International Global Markets Limited, a subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited, which is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.