【韩国央行】影响韩国近期出口的三个关键因素（韩国经济展望（2024年11月）关键问题）_17页_1mb

Summary of Korea's Recent Exports and Structural Challenges

Core Content

Korea's recent export performance in the third quarter of 2024 was marked by a decline in real GDP goods exports compared to the previous quarter, influenced by both temporary factors (e.g., strikes in the automotive sector) and structural factors that were more impactful than initially expected. The export landscape is now shaped by three major forces: advancements in the AI industry, intensifying competition with China, and rising U.S. protectionism. These factors are expected to have long-term implications for Korea's export strategy and growth.

Main Points

1. Structural Drivers of Korea's Exports

• AI Industry Growth:

  • High-performance semiconductors, particularly HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), are driving growth in Korea's semiconductor exports.
  • AI integration into IT devices is expected to boost demand for semiconductors, especially in the U.S. and allied countries.
  • Korean companies hold a technological edge in high-performance semiconductors, which is likely to benefit from continued global AI investments.

• Competition with China:

  • China has evolved from a complementary partner to a major competitor in Korea's export markets.
  • Chinese semiconductor firms, such as CXMT, are gaining ground due to government support and a large domestic market.
  • China's "Red Supply Chain" is expanding into regions like ASEAN and South America, reducing its reliance on Korean imports.
  • China is also rapidly advancing in advanced industries such as electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar panels, increasing global competition.

• U.S. Protectionism:

  • The second Trump administration is expected to intensify trade barriers and tariffs, particularly on China.
  • U.S. sanctions on Chinese technologies could reduce China's exports to the U.S., indirectly affecting Korea's exports to China.
  • However, U.S. trade pressure on Korea could also lead to negative impacts, especially in the automotive sector.
  • The U.S. is likely to increase tariffs on Korean exports, which may harm competitiveness against U.S. manufacturers.

2. Export Trends by Product Category

• IT Exports:

  • Growing rapidly, especially in high-performance semiconductors and AI-related products.
  • The export value of IT products has shown a recovery pattern, while volume has stagnated due to weak demand for general-purpose semiconductors like DDR4.

• Non-IT Exports:

  • Showing modest growth or even decline, particularly in chemicals, steel, and automobiles.
  • Weak global demand and Chinese overproduction are key reasons for this sluggish performance.
  • Automotive exports were strong in early 2024 but weakened in Q3 due to strikes and competition from Chinese EVs.

3. Key Export Market Dynamics

• China's Role:

  • China is losing market share in Korea's semiconductor exports due to its own technological advancements and self-sufficiency.
  • Korea's trade balance with China has shifted to a deficit in recent years.
  • Chinese imports of intermediate goods into Korea are increasing, posing challenges to domestic industries.

• U.S. Market Impact:

  • Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $44.4 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed $50 billion in 2024.
  • Increased U.S. trade pressure is likely, especially in the automotive and machinery sectors.
  • Tariffs and sanctions on Chinese products may provide a buffer for Korean exports, but direct U.S. pressure could be detrimental.

Key Strategies for Sustainable Export Growth

To ensure sustainable export growth and overcome structural constraints, the following strategies are recommended:

1. Foster Advanced Industries:

   • Focus on talent acquisition and R&D investment in strategic sectors like semiconductors and AI.
   • Expand government support for technological innovation and infrastructure development.

2. Develop High-Value-Added Services:

   • Shift from a manufacturing-centric model to one that emphasizes high-value services such as IT, healthcare, education, finance, and entertainment.
   • This diversification is crucial to compensate for declining manufacturing exports.

3. Strengthen Diplomacy and Trade Policies:

   • Diversify export markets to reduce dependence on China and the U.S.
   • Seek diplomatic support for expanding into regions like India and ASEAN.
   • Engage in trade negotiations to alleviate U.S. trade pressure.

Conclusion

Korea's export growth is increasingly influenced by global AI trends, intensifying competition with China, and U.S. protectionist policies. While AI-driven demand and high-performance semiconductors offer opportunities, China's technological rise and U.S. trade pressures pose significant risks. To sustain export growth, Korea must invest in advanced industries, develop high-value services, and strategically manage its trade relationships with major partners.