2025-03-24-亚开行-格鲁吉亚公正转型社会经济影响评估（英）_130页_2mb

Just Transition Socioeconomic Impact Assessment for Georgia

This assessment evaluates the socioeconomic impacts of three priority climate actions in Georgia: renewable energy power plant construction, energy efficiency reform for buildings, and intercity bus transport reform.

1. Renewable Energy Power Plants Construction

• Key Challenges:
  • Negative impact on property values (7–12% reduction for wind and hydro plants).
  • Risk of increased electricity prices (though minimal for most households).
  • Vulnerability of low-income groups to price increases.
• Opportunities:
  • Job creation (approx. 4,000 jobs, primarily in areas with high unemployment).
  • Government revenue growth (€74 million/year) and potential for a Just Transition Fund.
• Recommendations:
  • Refine regulatory frameworks to address environmental and land use concerns.
  • Implement financial support mechanisms (cash transfers) for vulnerable households.
  • Ensure equitable employment opportunities and gender-sensitive programs.

2. Energy Efficiency Reform for New Buildings

• Key Challenges:
  • Increased compliance costs for construction suppliers, particularly MSMEs.
  • Potential affordability issues for low-income households regarding higher house prices and rents.
• Opportunities:
  • Energy savings for low-income households (up to 2.2% reduction in electricity expenditure).
  • Strengthening local construction industries through demand for energy-efficient materials.
• Recommendations:
  • Provide tailored financing and capacity-building for MSMEs.
  • Promote energy-efficient housing through fiscal incentives and awareness campaigns.

3. Intercity Bus Passenger Transport Reform

• Key Challenges:
  • Potential 5% fare increase and reduced service use among low-income groups.
  • High upfront costs for bus operators to comply with new regulations.
  • Displacement of informal workers following reforms.
• Opportunities:
  • Improved service safety, reliability, and coverage.
  • Increased female labor participation in transport.
• Recommendations:
  • Implement cash transfer programs to offset fare increases.
  • Offer preferential financing for bus fleet upgrades.
  • Ensure dedicated spaces for local artisans near bus stations to support informal employment.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen stakeholder engagement and communication to improve public perception.
• Proactively address distributional impacts to ensure inclusivity.
• Explore innovative financing mechanisms (e.g., Just Transition Funds) for climate initiatives.

By addressing these impacts and opportunities strategically, Georgia can ensure its climate transition is both fair and sustainable.