2025-06-10-Jefferies-航空航天与国防领域须知_英国Sizewell_C核电站_潜艇及航班情况_9页_214kb

Key Insights on European Aerospace & Defense Sector

UK Investments

• UK Chancellor announced £14.2bn commitment to Sizewell C nuclear site and £6bn investment to increase submarine production capacity.

Civil Aviation Trends

• Commercial flights increased 1% year-over-year to 139.3k flights/day in the week up to June 9, 2025.
• Flights remain 16% above 2019 levels, but recovery is slow due to a higher base.

Company Valuations & Risks

• BAE Systems PLC: SOTP-based valuation; risks include execution issues and declining defense stock popularity.
• Babcock International: SOTP-based; risks include restructuring, inflation on fixed-price contracts, and the Type 31 frigate build.
• MTU Aero Engines AG: SOTP-based; risks include ramp-up constraints and reduced aftermarket demand due to retirement waves.
• Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc: Mix of SOTP and FCF yield valuation; risks include weak air traffic and balance sheet challenges.
• Safran Group: SOTP-based; upside risks from increased air traffic demand; downside risks from cost inflation and potential disruptions.

Analyst Recommendations

• Buy: Rolls-Royce (RR/ LN), Babcock (BAB LN), MTU Aero (MTX GR), Safran (SAF FP).
• Hold: BAE Systems (BA/ LN).
• Ratings reflect 12-month total return expectations.

Risk Factors

• Civil and defense sector underperformance due to macroeconomic concerns, aviation traffic evolution, and geopolitical factors.