牛津经济研究院-欧盟27国品牌服装贸易的经济影响（英）-2025_17页_583kb

Summary of "The Economic Impact of Branded Clothing Retail in the EU27"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic impact of the branded clothing retail sector in the European Union (EU27) for the year 2023. The study was commissioned by the European Branded Clothing Association (EBCA) and conducted by Oxford Economics using a methodological approach based on publicly available data and economic impact modelling.

The branded clothing retail sector is not directly represented in the official NACE classification, so a custom sector definition was developed to include relevant components. The analysis covers three main channels of economic impact: direct, indirect, and induced effects, and uses input-output models to assess the broader economic contributions.

The findings highlight the significant role of the sector in the EU economy, with a total contribution of 331.8 billion euro to GDP and 4.5 million supported jobs. The sector's impact is not only limited to its own operations but also extends through its extensive global supply chain and local economic spending.

Main Points and Key Findings

• Sector Definition:

  • The branded clothing retail sector is defined using NACE codes and includes:
    • Retail sale of clothing in specialised stores (NACE 47.71)
    • Retail sale of footwear and leather goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.72)
    • Retail sale via mail order or internet (NACE 47.91)
  • A share of 80% of sales is assumed to be branded clothing based on previous studies.
  • Approximately 97% of NACE 47.72 is attributed to the branded clothing retail sector.

• Economic Impact Modelling:

  • The economic impact is broken down into three channels:
    • Direct Impact: Value added and employment generated directly by the sector.
    • Indirect Impact: Value added and employment stimulated by the sector's procurement from suppliers within the EU.
    • Induced Impact: Value added and employment resulting from wages spent by sector employees and suppliers in the local economy.
  • The model uses input-output analysis and incorporates trade feedbacks to capture the global nature of the supply chain.

• Key Economic Impact Results:

  • Total GVA: 331.8 billion euro
  • Direct GVA: 55.4 billion euro (16.7% of total retail and trade GVA)
  • Indirect GVA: 190.1 billion euro
  • Induced GVA: 86.2 billion euro
  • Total Employment: 4.5 million
  • Direct Employment: 1.3 million (28.7% of total retail and trade employment)
  • Indirect Employment: 2.2 million
  • Induced Employment: 1.0 million

• Main Supported Sectors:

  • Other business sector services: 49.7 billion euro (15% of total effect)
  • Real estate activities: 35.9 billion euro (11% of total effect)
  • Transportation and storage: 23.9 billion euro (7% of total effect)
  • Financial and insurance activities: 18.8 billion euro (6% of total effect)
  • Human health and social work: 14.4 billion euro (4% of total effect)

Trade Analysis

• The branded clothing retail sector is highly trade-intensive, with global supply chains.

• Import Analysis:

  • The EU is the largest importer of apparel, accounting for 28% of global imports.
  • Top importers for each product category:
    • Bags (HS code 4202): USA (19%), EU (17%), China (9%), Japan (9%), Hong Kong SAR (7%)
    • Apparel (HS codes 61 and 62): EU (28%), USA (26%), China (8%), Japan (6%), Republic of Korea (4%)
    • Footwear (HS code 64): USA (26%), EU (23%), China (6%), United Kingdom (5%), Japan (5%)
    • Headgear (HS code 64): USA (33%), EU (24%), Japan (7%), United Kingdom (5%), Republic of Korea (3%)

• Export Analysis:

  • The EU is the second-largest exporter of apparel and the largest exporter of bags.
  • Top exporters for each product category:
    • Bags (HS code 4202): China (49%), EU (28%), Hong Kong SAR (4%), Singapore (3%), Cambodia (2%)
    • Apparel (HS codes 61 and 62): China (42%), EU (11%), Türkiye (10%), India (8%), United Kingdom (6%)
    • Footwear (HS code 64): China (51%), EU (17%), Indonesia (6%), India (5%), Türkiye (2%)
    • Headgear (HS code 64): China (58%), EU (11%), USA (5%), United Kingdom (3%), Mexico (3%)

Methodology and Quality Assurance

• The study uses Eurostat data for direct effects and OECD data for input-output models.
• A custom sector definition was used to account for the lack of a dedicated NACE code for branded clothing retail.
• The economic impact model is based on the Global Sustainability Model, which allows for the analysis of international supply chains.
• The quality assurance process includes double-checking for consistency and plausibility, data processing, and review by independent staff members.

Additional Information

• The multiplier is a key metric that expresses the total economic impact relative to the direct effect. For employment, the multiplier is 3.5, meaning each direct job supports an additional 2.5 jobs in the rest of the economy.
• The supported jobs term refers to the gross effect of the sector, not net, as it is not possible to determine whether these jobs would have existed without the sector's activities.
• The GVA is calculated as the production value minus intermediate inputs and represents the true value added by the sector.