2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_What_Should_the_United_States_Do_about_Doha__5页_241kb

Doha Round Summary: What Should the United States Do?

Core Content

The Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations, initiated in 2001, has remained stalled despite political momentum from the 2010 Seoul G-20 Summit. The major trading nations have not made sufficient progress to finalize an agreement on agriculture, manufactures, and services. The U.S. Congress in 2011 faces a heavy trade legislative agenda, including implementing free trade agreements (FTAs) with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama, as well as reauthorizing trade adjustment assistance and developing-country trade preference programs. This has led the Obama administration to be cautious about introducing new Doha proposals that might provoke congressional opposition.

Main Policy Options

There are three main policy options for dealing with the Doha Round:

1. Declare Victory and Sign the Deal "On the Table"

• Pros: Avoids systemic damage from a failed multilateral trade negotiation, and includes formula tariff cuts in agriculture and non-agricultural market access (NAMA) plus reductions in agricultural subsidies.
• Cons:
  • The gains are small and unevenly distributed, benefiting China more than other countries.
  • U.S. exports would increase by $7.6 billion, imports by $14.3 billion, and GDP by $9.3 billion.
  • U.S. Congress would likely oppose the deal unless the president invests significant political capital.

2. Pull the Plug on the Talks

• Pros: Ends the decade-long impasse and allows for new negotiations on a modified agenda.
• Cons:
  • Developing countries, especially the poorest, would suffer significant losses.
  • It could damage the WTO's credibility and effectiveness, leading to a shift toward bilateral and regional trade agreements.
  • Key issues like agriculture and NAMA would still remain priorities, making future WTO negotiations difficult.

3. Call a "Time-Out" on the Doha Round

• Pros: Acknowledges the current political climate and avoids blame for the failure.
• Cons:
  • A hibernation period could lead to termination.
  • There is no guarantee that WTO members will return to negotiations, and the focus may shift to bilateral agreements.
  • These agreements may not align with the original Doha objectives and could further weaken the multilateral framework.

Key Information

• The Doha Round is seen as a "development round," but the current formula cuts fail to deliver substantial benefits to most developing countries.
• The U.S. has been hesitant to push for new proposals due to domestic political constraints.
• The down payment strategy is proposed as a way to keep the multilateral option open while accelerating bilateral and regional trade initiatives.
• The down payment could include:
  • Implementing the first 20% of tariff and subsidy cuts under the Doha formulas.
  • Provisional implementation of some Doha package elements.
  • Targeted technical and financial assistance for trade facilitation.
  • Eliminating tariffs on an agreed list of environmental goods, based on the World Bank's 2007 recommendation.
• These down payments could also include commitments to eliminate agricultural export subsidies by 2013 and simplify eligibility criteria for LDC preference programs.

Recommendations for U.S. Policy

To maintain the multilateral option and advance U.S. interests, the U.S. should:

• Continue to support a strong multilateral trading system, reconfirming its commitment to WTO rules and obligations.
• Accelerate bilateral and regional trade initiatives, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), to create momentum and buffer against protectionism.
• Work with the EU, Brazil, and India to resolve outstanding bilateral issues and establish rulemaking precedents that could be used in future WTO negotiations.
• Consider a trilateral services pact including Japan, and address overlapping issues with Brazil in a trilateral context.
• Use the down payment strategy as a "carrot" to encourage re-engagement in WTO talks by 2013, with an expiration date as a "stick."

Conclusion

The Doha Round is likely to remain stalled in the near term, with no clear path to success. The U.S. must balance its commitment to multilateralism with the need to pursue bilateral and regional agreements to protect its trade interests. A strategic down payment could help preserve the multilateral framework while offering tangible benefits to developing countries and encouraging renewed WTO negotiations in 2013.