2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_The_Doha_Round_after_Hong_Kong_9页_288kb

报告摘要

Summary of "The Doha Round after Hong Kong" Policy Brief

Core Content

This policy brief analyzes the outcomes and challenges of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations, focusing on the Hong Kong ministerial meeting (December 2005) and the implications for future progress. It outlines the minimal achievements, unresolved issues, and the likelihood of extending the negotiation timeline.

Main Achievements of the Hong Kong Ministerial

Phase out farm export subsidies by the end of 2013.
End tariffs and quotas on 97% of LDC exports by 2008.
End cotton export subsidies in 2006 and all tariffs/quotas on LDC cotton exports by 2008.
Extend the moratorium on e-commerce tariffs until the next ministerial.
Establish new deadlines for negotiating modalities, particularly in agriculture and nonagricultural market access (NAMA).

Key Issues and Challenges

1. Agriculture

The main deliverable was the agreement to phase out farm export subsidies by 2013.
Domestic farm support remained unresolved, with significant differences between the EU and the US on the scope and depth of reductions.
The Uruguay Round bound tariffs are still far above applied rates, and deep cuts are necessary to achieve meaningful liberalization.
The EU has offered minimal cuts, while the US and G-20 proposals are more ambitious.
The agricultural reform is seen as critical for securing support from LDCs, but progress is stalled due to political resistance and lack of consensus.

2. Nonagricultural Market Access (NAMA)

A tariff-cutting formula (Swiss formula) was endorsed, but coefficients for tariff reductions were not defined.
Bound and applied tariffs in many developing countries are not aligned, making formula-based reductions ineffective.
Exceptions to the formula were not clarified, further complicating negotiations.
A new deadline of April 30, 2006, was set for establishing NAMA modalities, but progress remains limited.

3. Services

General objectives for services liberalization were agreed upon, but specific commitments are lacking.
Bilateral request-offer negotiations remain the primary method, which has proven inefficient.
Only 68 offers were tabled by July 2005, covering 62% of WTO members.
LDCs are not required to submit offers, and many developing countries have not yet made commitments.
The "core group on services" includes the US, India, Brazil, China, and others, but divergent priorities hinder consensus.
Mode 4 (labor services) is particularly contentious due to immigration concerns in the US and policy flexibility demands from developing countries.

Negotiating Process and Deadlines

The Hong Kong declaration set multiple deadlines for 2006, including:
- April 30, 2006: Modalities for agricultural and industrial tariff negotiations.
- July 31, 2006: Draft schedules for NAMA and services.
- October 31, 2006: Final draft schedules.
These deadlines were not met, and the 2006 deadline for concluding negotiations is now considered highly improbable.
The negotiating process was prioritized over substantive policy reforms, leading to minimal progress.

Political and Domestic Constraints

Developing countries are hesitant to make reforms in manufactures and services without binding commitments on agricultural reform.
US Congress is wary of extending Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and may resist further commitments on farm subsidies and services liberalization.
EU has been resistant to making deeper cuts in domestic support and has not moved on NAMA and services.
Farm lobbies in both the US and EU impede reforms, and political resistance is a major barrier to progress.

Future Scenarios

Outright failure: Talks drift aimlessly, with regional initiatives proliferating as an alternative to WTO liberalization.
Minimalist deal: A small agreement is reached, but it omits key reforms, leading to dissatisfaction and more regionalism.
Extended negotiations: Talks continue through 2007, possibly longer. This requires TPA extension and farm bill reform in the US, which is politically uncertain.

Conclusion

China, Brazil, and India have the most to lose from a Doha Round collapse.
The US and EU are the main stumbling blocks due to domestic political and economic pressures.
A short extension of TPA to December 2007 is the most likely outcome, with a two-year break risking the perception of failure.
A trade summit involving key players (Brazil, China, India) is seen as a potential political jolt to revive the Doha Round.