2010年-世界发展银行全球_Madagascar_Economic_Update___Why_Has_the_Malagasy_Economy_Not_Yet_Collapsed__7页_6mb

Madagascar Economic Update Summary: Why Has the Malagasy Economy Not Yet Collapsed?

Core Content

Madagascar's economy has endured significant challenges since the political crisis began in early 2009 but has not collapsed, largely due to a combination of factors including modest recovery in private activities, a surge in informal economic activities, and continued official aid flows. Despite these stabilizing elements, the economic situation remains fragile, particularly in the fiscal and external sectors.

Main Points

Private Sector: Resilience Amidst Crisis

• The domestic private sector has faced challenges but has shown weak recovery in recent months, particularly in industrial activities, energy consumption, and tourism.
• The informal sector has played a critical role in sustaining economic activity, with an estimated 13% real-term growth in 2009, offsetting some of the decline in official GDP.
• The informal sector is driven by the strong performance of the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, small mining), growing informal trade in urban areas, and illegal trade in natural resources like rosewood.
• The record-breaking rice harvests (up 40% from 2007 to 2009) have kept prices low, reducing poverty in the short run, as rice makes up about 40% of poor households' consumption basket.

Public Sector: Austerity and Constraints

• Public spending has sharply declined, with a 47% drop between 2008 and 2010, mainly due to reduced capital expenditures.
• Wages and debt payments were fully maintained, with the wage bill accounting for 51% of total committed expenditures in the first semester of 2010.
• Fiscal revenues in January-May 2010 rose by 13% compared to 2009 but were still 11% lower than 2008.
• Tax revenues, especially indirect taxes (VAT and excise), increased, though the reasons for the rise in excise and VAT are not fully clear without more data.
• Non-fiscal revenues, such as royalties from mining and forestry, have historically been low (0.3% of GDP in 2008), raising concerns about underreporting and corruption.

Financial Sector: Stability with Caution

• The financial sector has remained relatively stable, with inflation at 9.1% year-to-year by May 2010, in line with seasonal trends.
• Base money increased by 1.6%, while broad money rose by 1.5%, with the Central Bank managing liquidity through open market operations.
• The exchange rate of the Ariary has been influenced by global currency instability, particularly in the Eurozone, rather than domestic pressures.
• International reserves held by the Central Bank remained stable at around US$960 million since end-2009, reflecting confidence in the local currency.

External Sector: Declining Exports, Reduced Imports

• Exports declined by 6% in the first five months of 2010 compared to 2009, but were significantly lower than in 2008 (down 31%).
• Imports fell by 20% compared to 2009, with a notable drop in non-oil imports due to reduced purchasing power.
• The trade deficit was reduced by one-third (US$68 million) due to the decline in imports and modest export growth.
• Certain export categories, such as mineral and wood products, saw dramatic increases, driven by QMM production and the performance of the primary sector.

Looking Forward: Fragility and Risks

• The economy remains extremely fragile, with key vulnerabilities:
  • Fiscal fragility: Weak tax collection and limited public investment will continue to constrain government spending and infrastructure development.
  • Informal sector risks: While providing short-term stability, illegal trade in natural resources may undermine Madagascar's reputation and deter investment.
  • Financial sector vulnerability: The thinness of the financial market makes it susceptible to shocks, even small ones, which could lead to inflationary pressures.
• Political instability, potential violence, and external shocks (such as climate change or global commodity price fluctuations) could still severely impact the economy.
• The relatively good performance of the primary sector in recent years has been due to favorable weather conditions, which may not be sustained in the future.

Key Information

• Official GDP decline: The economy experienced a contraction, but informal activities helped offset some of the losses.
• Aid inflows: Official aid remained at around 5% of GDP (US$350 million in 2009), which is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Credit to private sector: Collapsed in early 2010, with only 34 billion Ariary in credit compared to 78.7 billion in 2009 and 303.8 billion in 2008.
• Inflation: Maintained at 9.1% year-to-year by May 2010, with some declines in essential goods but rising pressure on imported goods.
• Political impact: The lack of a consensual political resolution threatened economic collapse, but the resilience of the informal sector and aid flows prevented it.

Conclusion

Madagascar's economy has shown resilience despite political instability and a decline in public investment. However, its fragility is evident in the weak formal sector performance, the risks associated with the informal sector, and the susceptibility of the financial system to external shocks. Sustained recovery will require improved governance, better tax collection, and a more stable political environment.