2010年-世界发展银行全球_Vietnam_Labour_Market_and_Informal_Economy_in_a_Time_of_Crisis_and_Recovery_2007-2009___Main_Findings_of_the_Labour_Force_Surveys_17页_818kb

Vietnam Labour Market and Informal Economy in a Time of Crisis and Recovery (2007-2009)

Core Content

This policy brief presents the main findings of the Labour Force Surveys (LFS) conducted in Vietnam in 2007 and 2009, focusing on the impact of the global crisis on the labour market and the informal economy. The surveys, conducted by the General Statistics Office (GSO) in collaboration with the French Institute of Research for Development (IRD), offer the first comprehensive data on the informal sector in Vietnam.

Main Findings

1. Labour Market Dynamics

• Activity Rates: There was a slight increase in the overall activity rate, from 74.5% to 75.8%, mainly driven by urban areas. The increase was concentrated among young and old workers, suggesting that the crisis pushed secondary household members into the workforce.
• Unemployment Rates: Contrary to expectations, the overall unemployment rate decreased slightly from 2.0% in 2007 to 1.7% in 2009. Urban unemployment decreased from 3.6% to 2.8%, while rural unemployment remained low.
• Youth Unemployment: The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 15-19 dropped by 6.5 percentage points, from 14.6% to 8.1%, indicating a significant improvement in job access for young workers.
• Long-Term Unemployment: The proportion of long-term unemployed (more than one year) decreased from 30% to 16%, showing a reduction in the duration of unemployment.

2. Informal Economy and Employment Structure

• Informal Employment: Informal employment increased slightly from 81.9% to 80.5% of total employment, but this drop is considered conservative due to the inclusion of contributing family workers.
• Employment Distribution: The informal sector and private formal sectors saw an increase in employment, while public and foreign enterprise sectors experienced a slight decline. The informal sector maintained a significant share of total employment (23.7% in 2009), with the largest increase in rural areas.
• Sectoral Shifts: Agricultural employment remained high, at 48.1% in 2009, showing no significant return to rural areas. The distribution of employment by institutional sector remained largely stable during the crisis.

3. Wage Workers and Job Status

• Wage Workers: The proportion of wage workers increased from 30% to 33.6% of the total workforce, with a notable rise in fixed remuneration and a decline in no-contract and variable payment arrangements.
• Gender Differences: Female wage workers showed more secure employment arrangements than male counterparts, with higher rates of permanent written contracts and regular pay. This is attributed to their overrepresentation in more formalized sectors.
• Job Status Changes: There was a significant shift in job status, with a decline in own account workers and an increase in contributing family workers, particularly among women and in rural areas. These changes are suspected to be due to measurement issues rather than real shifts in job status.

4. Labour Conditions and Vulnerability

• Informal Employment as an Indicator: Informal employment is a key indicator of job insecurity. It was found to be prevalent in both urban and rural areas, with a higher rate in rural areas (88.0% vs. 60.9%).
• Labour Earnings Growth: Despite the crisis, there was an impressive growth in labour earnings, suggesting that the informal sector played a crucial role in maintaining employment and income levels.
• Job Quality Improvements: Wage workers saw improvements in job quality, with more fixed remuneration and fewer no-contract arrangements, indicating a slight improvement in working conditions.

Key Information

• Methodology: The LFS2007 and LFS2009 surveys provided the first reliable data on the informal sector in Vietnam, allowing for a more accurate analysis of its role in the labour market.
• Impact of the Crisis: The global crisis had a less severe impact on Vietnam compared to other Asian countries, partly due to its early financial crisis response, a predominantly rural economy, and continued export growth.
• Informal Sector Role: The informal sector acted as a buffer for the labour market, absorbing the impact of the crisis and contributing to job creation and income stability.
• Policy Implications: The findings suggest that traditional indicators like unemployment may not be sufficient to capture the true state of the labour market in Vietnam. They also highlight the need for improved survey methodologies and targeted social and economic policies to support vulnerable groups.

Conclusion

The data from the LFS2007 and LFS2009 surveys indicate that Vietnam's labour market and informal economy showed resilience during the global crisis. The informal sector played a critical role in absorbing the shock, with improvements in job quality and a slight increase in employment. These findings have important implications for survey design and the formulation of social and economic policies in Vietnam and similar developing countries.