世界发展银行-Madagascar-Country-Economic-Memorandum-_-Scaling-Success---Building-a-Resilient-Economy_123页_2mb

Madagascar Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

The Madagascar Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) outlines the country's economic trajectory, challenges, and reform priorities aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable growth. It emphasizes the importance of leveraging export-oriented sectors, improving connectivity, enhancing human capital, and reforming the business environment to support long-term development.

Main Views

• Economic and Political Stability: Madagascar has experienced steady economic growth and a peaceful political transition, providing a conducive environment for inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
• Export-Oriented Sectors: The country's export-oriented sectors, including agribusiness, textiles, and IT-BPO, are key drivers of growth, creating jobs and contributing significantly to GDP.
• Constraints to Growth: Scaling success requires addressing infrastructure gaps, improving human capital, and enhancing the business environment. The CEM identifies connectivity, human capital, and institutional quality as critical constraints.
• Inclusive Growth: Policies should focus on making the economy more inclusive, particularly by supporting the agriculture sector and improving access to services for the poor and vulnerable.

Key Information

Economic Performance

• Madagascar's economy has grown for six consecutive years, with an estimated growth rate of over 5% in 2018 and 2019.
• Despite this growth, the country remains one of the few with a long-term decline in income levels, 41% poorer than at independence in 1960.
• The poverty rate is high, with an estimated 77.6% of the population living below the US$1.90 poverty line at purchasing power parity.

Export-Oriented Sectors

• These sectors, such as agribusiness, textiles, and IT-BPO, are crucial for growth and have shown resilience to shocks.
• The export-to-GDP ratio has increased from 27% (2010–2013) to 33% (2014–2017), indicating a growing role in the economy.
• Madagascar has one of the highest rates of export growth in the region and is a significant participant in global value chains.

Infrastructure and Connectivity

• Connectivity remains a major challenge, particularly in rural areas.
• Improving pipeline infrastructure and logistics is essential for enhancing trade and economic linkages.
• Air transport and broadband internet are also critical areas for reform to reduce costs and improve access.

Human Capital

• Human capital is in decline, with Malagasy workers being 37% less productive due to poor health and education outcomes.
• The labor force participation rate is high, but most jobs are informal and low-productivity.
• Investments in education and health are among the lowest globally, leading to poor learning and health outcomes.

Business Environment and Institutional Reforms

• The business environment in Madagascar is challenging, with high costs and inefficiencies in key areas such as electricity and permits.
• Reforms are needed to improve institutional quality, promote competition, and support the private sector.
• Strengthening the regulatory framework and ensuring transparency in public services are critical to enhancing the business climate.

Agriculture and Inclusivity

• Agriculture is a major employer but has limited productivity and value addition.
• Improvements in crop marketing, transport, and storage are necessary to enhance the sector's contribution to growth.
• Contract farming and better access to information can help smallholder farmers improve productivity and market participation.

Policy Recommendations

• Infrastructure Development: Accelerate pipeline projects, improve road and rail connectivity, and support logistics infrastructure.
• Human Capital Investment: Focus on education and health to improve productivity and labor quality.
• Business Environment Reforms: Promote competition, reduce costs, and enhance institutional effectiveness.
• Technology Adoption: Incentivize the use of improved technologies to boost productivity across sectors, especially agriculture.
• Trade and Investment Policies: Streamline export regulations, enhance market access, and support FDI in high-performing sectors.

Conclusion and Reform Priorities

• The CEM concludes that Madagascar has the potential for inclusive growth, but this requires addressing structural constraints.
• Key reform priorities include improving infrastructure, enhancing human capital, promoting competition, and supporting technology adoption to unlock the full potential of the economy.

References and Support

• The report was prepared by a World Bank team with contributions from various government and institutional stakeholders.
• It received valuable inputs from over 150 private sector and embassy representatives.
• Support for the report was provided by the Umbrella Trust Facility for Trade.

Summary of Reforms

• Infrastructure: Focus on road, rail, and air transport improvements, including public-private partnerships.
• Human Capital: Invest in education and health, improve teacher training, and address high rates of stunting and undernutrition.
• Business Environment: Modernize regulatory frameworks, promote competition in telecommunications and energy, and improve public service delivery.
• Technology and Innovation: Encourage the adoption of improved technologies and digital services to enhance productivity and competitiveness.

This summary highlights the strategic directions and reform priorities necessary for Madagascar to achieve its economic and social development goals.