2010年-世界发展银行全球_Madagascar_Investment_Climate_Assessment_Update_99页_1mb

Summary of Madagascar Investment Climate Assessment Update

Core Content

This report provides an updated Investment Climate Assessment (ICAU) of Madagascar, focusing on firm growth and productivity in the period 2004-2007, prior to the political crisis that began in 2009. The analysis is based on data from two Enterprise Surveys conducted in 2005 and 2008, which cover firms from 2004 and 2007 respectively. The findings are benchmarked against a set of comparator countries in Africa and other regions, including Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Main Findings

• Firm Heterogeneity: There is a high degree of variation in firm performance and growth across sizes and sectors. Larger firms tend to grow faster than smaller ones up to a certain threshold (above 100 employees), indicating an inverted-U relationship between firm size and growth.

• Productivity Trends: Labor productivity dispersion has widened in Madagascar between 2004 and 2007, with both mean and median levels declining. Productivity also increases with firm size up to a certain point, after which it stagnates or declines.

• Resource Misallocation: There is a lack of positive correlation between firm productivity and growth, suggesting inefficiencies in resource allocation. More productive firms are not necessarily growing faster, which implies that market mechanisms are not functioning effectively to reward productivity.

• Informality and Formalization: Informality appears to be a rational choice for micro-enterprises due to the high costs of formal compliance, including government regulations, electricity, and security. This may limit their ability to grow and formalize, potentially leading to threshold effects in growth.

• External Factors: External factors such as infrastructure, electricity access, transportation, crime, and corruption significantly affect firm performance. These challenges are more pronounced for larger firms, which may be less able to self-finance infrastructure and security needs.

• Export and License Impact: Exporters and firms holding foreign licenses are more productive, but they do not grow faster than non-exporters. This suggests that productivity and growth are not directly linked in Madagascar.

• Political and Economic Context: Before the political crisis, Madagascar had a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, with economic growth averaging over 5%. However, it remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with high income inequality and a GINI coefficient of 47.2.

Key Policy Messages

1. Addressing Distortions: There is a need to tackle distortions and barriers that prevent more productive firms from growing, thus limiting their potential to contribute to economic development.
2. Improving Business Environment: Enhancing the business environment, particularly for micro and small firms, is essential to encourage formalization and further growth.

Comparator Countries

• Africa: Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda.
• Other Regions: India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, selected for their export performance and labor abundance.

Economic Structure and Indicators

• Poverty and Inequality: Madagascar has a poverty gap of 26.5% (at $1.25/day) and a GINI index of 47.2, among the highest in the comparator group.
• GNI and GDP Growth: Madagascar's GNI per capita is one of the lowest, and its average GDP growth is among the lowest, indicating slow economic development.
• Inflation and Exchange Rate: Inflation decreased from 18.5% in 2005 to 9% in 2009, with a slight depreciation of the ariary against the US dollar in 2009, though this did not significantly impact inflation due to favorable agricultural conditions.

Financial and Monetary Policy

• Interest Rates: Interest rates remained stable in 2009, while lending rates increased significantly from 24.3% in 2003 to 45.0% in 2007-2009.
• Monetary Aggregates: M1 increased moderately over the period, with a slight decline in T-bill yields, indicating reduced market pressure.

Conclusion

The report highlights the challenges facing Madagascar's private sector, particularly in terms of firm growth, productivity, and resource allocation. It underscores the importance of addressing structural issues in the business environment to promote sustainable economic development and reduce the misallocation of resources. Future analyses should focus on factor markets, firm transitions from informality to formality, credit access, and the impact of the loss of AGOA on firm performance and exports.