2010年-世界发展银行全球_Madagascar_Economic_Update___2009_and_Beyond_12页_765kb

Madagascar Economic Update: 2009 and Beyond

Core Content Overview

This document provides an economic analysis of Madagascar from late 2009 to early 2010, highlighting the impact of the global financial crisis and the ongoing political instability on the country's economic performance. It evaluates the state of economic growth, public sector management, financial sector stability, and the external sector, offering insights into the challenges and prospects for the future.

Economic Growth: Recession or Not?

Key Points:

• Economic Growth Declined: Despite initial optimism in 2008, Madagascar's economy entered recession in Q2 2009, with a projected GDP growth of 0.6% in 2009 and 2.7% in 2010, which are considered unreliable due to lack of transparency and the absence of an IMF program.
• Investment as a Growth Driver: Historically, investment (public and private) has been a key driver of economic growth in Madagascar. In 2009, total investment dropped significantly, with public investment declining by 30% in real terms.
• Sectoral Impact:
  • Exports and Tourism: Sectors like textiles, shrimp, and tourism experienced sharp declines due to the suspension of AGOA trade privileges and the political crisis.
  • Construction: Suffered a 40% drop in production, mainly due to reduced public investment.
  • Agriculture: Benefited from good harvests, particularly rice, which expanded by 10–15% in volume, contributing to social stability.
  • Mining: Saw a boost with the start of QMM/Rio Tinto production, though it is unlikely to offset the overall decline in other sectors.
• Indicators of Recession:
  • Energy and petroleum products consumption fell by 15%.
  • Credit to the private sector increased by only 5%, much slower than previous years.
  • Non-performing loans rose by 16.8%.
  • Imports declined by 22%, including a significant drop in capital goods.
  • Job losses were estimated at around 228,000, mainly in urban areas.
• Income Per Capita Declined: Even with the official GDP growth estimate, the standard Malagasy household is poorer today than a year ago due to a 3.0% annual population growth rate.

Public Sector: Sustainable Adjustment?

Key Points:

• Fiscal Adjustment: The government implemented a prudent fiscal policy, reducing public investment and maintenance expenditures, while maintaining wage payments.
• Revenue Shortfall: Fiscal revenues fell by about 25% due to economic slowdown and inefficiencies in tax and customs collection.
• Foreign Aid Decline: Official aid dropped from US$250–270 million in 2008 to around US$150 million in 2009, with budget support suspended after December 2008.
• Debt and Liquidity: The government managed to control the fiscal gap, with limited domestic borrowing and stable debt levels. However, the T-Bill market showed signs of strain, with yields rising from 4.0% to 8.2% in early 2010.
• Prospects:
  • The government is under pressure to increase public spending, especially for elections and emergencies, which could lead to increased borrowing or arrears.
  • A fiscal expansionary policy risks inflation, interest rate hikes, and currency depreciation, as seen in 2004.
  • The 2010 Law of Finance is speculative, and there is likely to be a gap between planned and executed expenditures.

Financial Sector: Fragile Stability?

Key Points:

• Stability Amid Crisis: Despite the global financial crisis and domestic turmoil, key financial indicators remained relatively stable.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank and commercial banks maintained cautious policies, resulting in a modest increase in M3 and a decline in excess liquidity.
• Deposits and Credit: Total deposits increased by 11%, with significant growth in savings and foreign currency deposits. However, credit to the private sector slowed due to reduced demand and increased non-performing loans.
• Exchange Rate and Inflation: The exchange rate remained stable, and inflation and interest rates were under control, but the financial system remains vulnerable to shocks.
• Prospects:
  • A significant increase in public spending could lead to rapid credit expansion, crowding out private sector credit and increasing inflation.
  • The financial system's thinness makes it susceptible to policy shifts or external shocks.

External Sector: Competitiveness Losses?

Key Points:

• Export Decline: Exports fell by 18% in the first three quarters of 2009, with textiles, vanilla, and shrimp being the main losers.
• FDI and Tourism: FDI inflows dropped by 19%, and tourist arrivals fell by nearly 60%.
• Import Decline: Imports decreased by 22%, partly due to reduced domestic demand, though food imports increased.
• Balance of Payments: The decline in exports was partially offset by lower imports, resulting in minimal pressure on the balance of payments.
• Currency Depreciation: The local currency depreciated by about 11% against the US dollar since late 2009, with further volatility expected due to political uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Uncertain Prospects

Key Points:

• Economic Uncertainty: The lack of resolution of the political crisis and the suspension of AGOA trade privileges make 2010 a challenging year.
• Sectoral Vulnerability: Export-oriented sectors and construction are particularly vulnerable, and their decline will likely drag down overall GDP growth.
• Fiscal Policy Focus: The government is expected to focus on improving the efficiency of public spending rather than increasing it.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Improve governance and control of public agencies and enterprises.
  • Reduce the cost of doing business through better infrastructure and energy pricing.
  • Liberalize strategic sectors like communication to lower costs and improve investment incentives.

Conclusion

Madagascar's economy faced a severe downturn in 2009 due to the combined effects of the global financial crisis and political instability. While some sectors like agriculture and mining showed resilience, the overall economic activity declined significantly. The government's fiscal adjustment, though prudent, has led to reduced public services and infrastructure maintenance. The financial sector remained stable but is vulnerable to shocks. The external sector experienced competitiveness losses, with exports and FDI declining sharply. Prospects for 2010 remain bleak unless the political crisis is resolved and confidence is restored.