20170116-招商证券_香港_-欧洲央行1月份货币政策会议前瞻_尽管近期通胀有所上升_我们预计欧洲央行将维持目前的政策不变_15页_1mb_1mb

Macro Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the global macroeconomic outlook, focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB), the U.S., and Japan. It outlines the expected outcomes of the ECB's January 19, 2017 monetary policy meeting, key economic data for the Eurozone, and the U.S. and Japan's economic performance.

Main Views

ECB Policy Outlook

• No Policy Change Expected: Despite recent signs of higher inflation and economic growth, the ECB is expected to maintain its current monetary policy framework, including unchanged key policy rates and the continuation of the Asset Purchase Program (APP).
• Reasons for Inaction: The ECB believes the economic recovery is not yet solid enough to warrant tightening. The recent inflation rise is largely due to energy price base effects, and core inflation remains low.
• TLTRO Extension Possible: The ECB may extend the current TLTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations) which is set to expire in March, to continue supporting the banking sector and counteract negative interest rates.
• Market Stability: If the ECB's decision aligns with market expectations, the Euro is expected to remain stable.

U.S. Economic Outlook

• Weak Labor Market: The initial unemployment claims rose to 247,000, slightly above the previous week but still below market expectations. The four-week average remained low, indicating continued stability in the labor market.
• Retail Sales: December retail sales increased by 0.6%, slightly below expectations. Strong auto sales were offset by weaker performance in other sectors such as retail and dining.
• GDP Forecast: The report forecasts U.S. GDP growth at 1.7% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017, with a policy rate expected to rise from 0.75% to 1.25%.
• Inflation and CPI: The CPI is expected to rise to 2.1% in 2017, but the core CPI remains below the target. The dollar index is projected to increase from 99.2 to 102.6.
• Fiscal and Trade Balance: The fiscal deficit is expected to remain high, and the trade balance is projected to worsen.

Eurozone Economic Outlook

• Industrial Production Growth: November industrial production increased by 1.5%, well above expectations, with strong performance in France, Spain, and Italy. However, Greece and Portugal saw declines.
• Inflation Dynamics: The overall HICP inflation is expected to rise to 1.2% in 2017, but core inflation remains low at 0.9%. The ECB is cautious about the sustainability of the growth.
• Policy Response: The ECB has already trimmed the APP to 60 billion euros per month and may not further reduce it due to the low level of its balance sheet compared to other central banks.
• Labor Market Slack: Although the unemployment rate has fallen slightly below 10%, wage growth remains weak, which limits inflationary pressure.
• Inflation Expectations: Market-based inflation expectations have risen slowly, and the ECB is unlikely to start raising rates until they reach a more robust level.

Japan Economic Outlook

• Industrial Production: The data shows a weak performance, with industrial output growth at -2.2% in December 2016, but the PMI improved slightly.
• Consumer Confidence: The consumer confidence index showed an improvement, indicating a better outlook for consumer spending.
• Inflation and CPI: The CPI is expected to rise to 0.6% in 2017, but the core CPI remains low. The Yen is expected to weaken against the dollar.
• Trade and Investment: Japan's trade balance is expected to improve, and the Yen may weaken due to the continued low inflation and weak growth.

Key Data and Forecasts

Key Information

• ECB Policy: The ECB is expected to maintain its accommodative stance, with no changes to policy rates or the APP. It may extend TLTRO to support the banking sector.
• Eurozone Recovery: The economic recovery is not as robust as the U.S. and is still dependent on monetary stimulus. Core inflation remains low, and the ECB is cautious about any premature tightening.
• U.S. Data: The labor market remains stable, but retail sales were slightly below expectations. The dollar is expected to strengthen against the Euro and Yen.
• Japan's Performance: The economy shows some improvement, but inflation remains low. The Yen is expected to weaken against the dollar.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the ECB is unlikely to change its current monetary policy framework in the near term, given the lack of strong evidence for a solid economic recovery. The U.S. economy is expected to continue its growth path, with a rise in the policy rate and dollar index. Japan shows some signs of recovery, but inflation and growth remain weak, suggesting a continued depreciation of the Yen. The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on maintaining stability and supporting growth.