2025-06-16-Jefferies-邀请_近期投资者反馈更新_NOW的NDR要点及更多内容_7页_106kb

Jefferies Software Research Summary

Upcoming Event

• Date: Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET (7:00 AM PT).
• Topic: Update on investor feedback, NOW's NDR takeaways, pre-quiet period corporate touch-points, and early Q2 EPS outlook.
• Speakers: Samad Samana and Jeff Favuzza.
• Registration: Provided separately; details not included in this summary.

Company Valuations and Risks

• ServiceNow (NOW):

  • Target price: $1,025, based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF).
  • Risks: Increased competition in new areas, lengthy and unpredictable sales cycles, potential software spending slowdown.

• Shopify (SHOP):

  • Target price: $110, based on DCF analysis.
  • Risks: Competitive pressures, macroeconomic environment, shift back to brick-and-mortar retail, rapid interest rate increases.

• Toast (TOST):

  • Target price: $50, based on DCF valuation.
  • Risks: Greater competition from POS and payment providers, reduced consumer spending affecting Gross Processing Volume (GPV), longer path to profitability.

Analyst Ratings and Methodology

• Rating System:
  • Buy: Expected total return (price appreciation + yield) of 15% or more in 12 months (20% for low-priced stocks).
  • Hold: Expected return between -10% and +15%.
  • Underperform: Expected return of -10% or less.
• Valuation Approaches: Includes DCF analysis, EBITDA, P/E ratios, and other financial metrics.

Key Takeaways

• The report highlights recent investor feedback and inbound questions, emphasizing market dynamics and potential challenges.
• ServiceNow and Toast are recommended with Buy ratings; Shopify is on Hold.
• Analyst certification confirms personal views and compensation links to firm performance.

Disclaimers

• Investment involves risks; past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Report is for Jefferies clients only; unauthorized distribution prohibited.
• Conflicts of interest exist as Jefferies may engage with covered companies for business deals.