纽约联储-2020年第四季度家庭债务和信贷报告（英文）-2021.5-47页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2020:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report

Core Content

This report provides an overview of household debt and credit trends in the fourth quarter of 2020, released in February 2021 by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It highlights changes in debt balances, originations, delinquency rates, and other credit-related metrics, emphasizing the impact of the pandemic and government assistance programs.

Key Highlights

Total Household Debt

Aggregate household debt balances increased by $206 billion in 2020Q4, a 1.4% rise from 2020Q3.
Debt balances stood at $14.56 trillion, up $414 billion from the end of 2019.

Mortgage Debt

Mortgage balances surpassed $10.04 trillion at the end of December 2020, an increase of $182 billion from 2020Q3.
Mortgage originations in 2020Q4 reached a record high of $1.2 trillion, including refinances.
Median credit score for newly originated mortgages remained stable at 786, reflecting a high proportion of refinances.

Auto Loan Debt

Auto loan balances increased by $14 billion in 2020Q4.
Auto loan originations were the second highest level of the series, at $162 billion, slightly down from the record high in 2020Q3.
The median credit score for auto loans rose to 717 from 712.

Credit Card Debt

Credit card balances increased by $12 billion in the fourth quarter, following a sharp decline in the second quarter ($76 billion) and a smaller drop in the third quarter ($10 billion).
Credit card balances were $108 billion lower than at the end of 2019, the largest yearly decline since 1999.
Aggregate credit limits on credit cards declined by $10 billion, continuing a trend of reductions.

Student Loan Debt

Outstanding student loan debt reached $1.56 trillion in 2020Q4, up $9 billion from the previous quarter.
6.5% of student loan debt was 90+ days delinquent or in default, influenced by the CARES Act administrative forbearance.

Delinquency Rates

Aggregate delinquency rates declined to 3.2%, a 0.2 percentage point drop from the third quarter.
This decline reflects the impact of forbearance programs (both government and voluntary).
2% of mortgage debt (annualized) was in serious delinquency (90+ days late), down 1.5 percentage points from 2019Q4.
54% of loans in early delinquency transitioned back to current status.

Foreclosures and Bankruptcies

14,000 new foreclosure starts were recorded in the fourth quarter.
121,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2020Q4, a new historical low.
The share of consumers with a collection also declined sharply.

Credit Activity Trends

Credit inquiries within the past six months totaled 120 million, a modest decline from the previous quarter.
Account openings declined by 5 million to 190 million, following larger drops in earlier quarters.
Account closings and credit utilization trends were also discussed, with a note on the potential underreporting of credit limits.

Key Information

Data Sources and Methodology

The report is based on the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, a 5% random sample of individuals with credit reports.
A 2% subsample was used for some computations, resulting in a 0.1% sample for most graphs.
The report excludes inactive accounts and non-reported accounts, which may have been closed or transferred.

Loan Types and Definitions

Loan types include mortgage, home equity revolving, auto loans and leases, credit card, student loans, and other.
Mortgage includes first-liens and home equity installment loans.
HELOCs saw a $13 billion decline, marking the 16th consecutive decrease since 2016Q4.
Delinquency statuses are defined as current, 30+ days late, 60+ days late, 90+ days late, or collections.

Notes on Data Accuracy

Student loan data may be affected by delays in reporting to credit bureaus.
Credit utilization rates for revolving accounts are likely to overestimate actual usage.
Delinquency status is influenced by creditor reporting practices, especially for accounts that have been derogatory for a long time.

Conclusion

The report underscores the resilience of the credit market during the pandemic, driven by government stimulus and forbearance programs. While total debt balances rose, delinquency rates continued to decline, and new credit activity remained subdued. The CARES Act played a significant role in protecting borrowers from delinquency and foreclosures, leading to improved credit outcomes for many. The data also highlights important trends in different loan types and demographic variations in credit behavior.