四季度经济增速略弱于预期，但12月数据初显政策成效-20240117-浦银国际证券-10页_809kb

Summary of Q4 Economic Data and Policy Responses

Economic Growth: Q4 GDP growth declined to 52% YoY, slightly below market expectations of 53%, with a环比 slowdown of 0.3 points to 1%. GDP deflator inflation dropped further, exacerbating economic concerns. The second and third industries showed similar growth, but the second industry maintained higher resilience in years-of-comparison metrics.

Population and Demographics: Population natural growth rate declined in 2023, with aging accelerating to 15.4% for those over 65, posing medium-term risks to economic vitality.

Consumer Spending: December retail data fell short, with single-month growth slowing, but years-of-comparison growth rebounded to 27%, driven by services. Goods retail improved due to better apparel and electronics.

Fixed Asset Investment: Investment accelerated in December to 3%, supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, offsetting real estate weakness. Services investment lagged higher.

Real Estate: Sales and investment continued falling; policies from demand-side to supply-side inched markets but with minimal December improvements.

Industrial Production and Policy: Industrial output growth surged to 68% YoY, aided by stock depreciation; however, policies remained supportive. Fiscal measures included spending on bonds and mortgages, while monetary policy focused on liquidity and potential rate tweaks, with inflation challenges from falling food prices.

Outlook: Short-term policy boosters show signs, but over-reliance on debt and real estate risks could slow growth unless stabilizing. 2024 policy emphasis is on investment and deleveraging.

Risks: Economic underperformance, real estate persistence, weak consumption, and geopolitical issues seen.