2013年-世界发展银行全球_Ghana___Cocoa_Supply_Chain_Risk_Assessment_65页_1mb

Summary of the Supply Chain Risk Assessment for the Cocoa Subsector in Ghana

Core Content

The document presents a comprehensive supply chain risk assessment of Ghana's cocoa subsector, highlighting the key risks, vulnerabilities, and recommended measures for improving risk management. It emphasizes the critical role of cocoa in Ghana's economy and the importance of maintaining its sustainability and profitability.

Main Points

1. Introduction

• Cocoa's Economic Importance: Cocoa is a vital agricultural export and a major source of rural employment in Ghana.
• Government Commitment: The Government of Ghana (GoG) has invested in restructuring the industry, improving productivity, and reducing marketing inefficiencies.
• Objective of the Study: To identify major risks, assess gaps in risk management, and suggest measures for improved risk mitigation.

2. Overview of the Cocoa Subsector in Ghana

• Global Context: Ghana is one of the world's leading cocoa producers, second only to Côte d'Ivoire in 2009-10.
• Production Trends: Production has reached record highs, with over 632,000 metric tons (MT) produced in 2009-10.
• Export Performance: Exports have surged, generating over US$1.6 billion in foreign exchange in 2009-10.
• Domestic Processing: The domestic processing sector has grown significantly, with increased grinding capacity and support from foreign direct investment (FDI).

3. Organizational Structure of the Cocoa Supply Chain

• The supply chain includes input suppliers, farmers, traders, transporters, and processors.
• The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) plays a central role in regulating the supply chain, including marketing, quality control, and support for farmers.
• COCOBOD retains a portion of the FOB price for operational expenses and reinvestment into the cocoa economy.

Key Risks to the Cocoa Supply Chain

4.1 Production Risks

• Black Pod Disease (BPD): The most pervasive and costly disease, causing an estimated US$300 million in annual losses (2008-10).
• Cocoa Mirids/Capsids: Second to BPD, these pests cause nearly US$172 million in annual losses (2008-10).
• Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD): Affected over 100,000 hectares (2007-10), with cumulative losses of US$84.9 million.
• Other Pests and Diseases: Includes witches' broom and frosty pod rot, which, while not assessed in this report, pose significant threats.
• Environmental Risks: Drought, bushfires, and loss of cocoa acreage are less frequent but still impactful.

4.2 Market Risks

• Cocoa Price Volatility: A major challenge, affecting farmers and stakeholders.
• Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility: Impact the financial stability of the sector.
• Input Price Volatility: Affects the cost of production and profitability.
• Counterparty Risks: Risks associated with trading and sales contracts.

4.3 Enabling Environment Risks

• Cocoa Smuggling: A significant issue, estimated to cause over US$158.9 million in losses (2008-11).
• Market Regulation Risks: Inconsistent enforcement can lead to inefficiencies and unfair practices.
• Policy Risks: Policy instability and lack of coherence can undermine sector growth.
• Logistics Breakdown: Poor infrastructure and transportation can increase costs and reduce efficiency.
• Misappropriation of Funds: Corruption and misuse of funds can weaken the sector's financial health.

Vulnerability to Risk

• The risk vulnerability is measured based on the frequency and impact of risk events.
• The analysis indicates that production and market risks are the most significant, particularly BPD, mirids/capsids, and smuggling.
• Stakeholders across the supply chain are exposed to acute risks, especially in the context of price volatility and smuggling.

Priority Measures for Risk Management

• Improve Fungicide Application Techniques: Enhance effectiveness and reduce wastage.
• Promote Farm-Level Decision-Making: Encourage use of private input networks for better access to fungicides.
• Develop Insecticide Application Research: Focus on efficient and effective pest control methods.
• Enhance Distribution of Non-CODAPEC Insecticides: Facilitate access through commercial suppliers.
• Target Swollen Shoot Control: Focus on high-risk and high-potential areas.
• Hedge Futures Sales: Allow COCOBOD to optimize sales prices and increase transparency.
• Use Options for Risk Hedging: Reduce counterparty exposure for the Cocoa Marketing Company (CMC).
• Address Smuggling: Engage in formal dialogue with Côte d'Ivoire to coordinate border security and allocate resources to reduce smuggling flows.

Concluding Remarks

• The study underscores the need for an evidence-based reassessment of risk management mechanisms.
• A comprehensive roadmap for risk mitigation and sector growth is recommended.
• The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has shown strong leadership, but the challenges remain significant.
• The Government of Ghana (GoG) is committed to sustaining the sector's growth and profitability through strategic reforms and support.

Key Recommendations

• Improve pest and disease control through better techniques and equipment.
• Enhance farmer access to inputs and credit.
• Strengthen logistics and infrastructure to reduce transaction costs.
• Promote transparency and competition in the international market.
• Coordinate with Côte d'Ivoire to combat smuggling and improve border security.

Annexes and Supporting Information

• Annex A1: Farmer price overview.
• Annex A2: Other threats to the supply chain.
• Annex A3: Supply chain constraints.
• Annex A4: COCOBOD High-Tech Program.
• Annex A5: CODAPEC operations.
• Annex A6: Farmers' risk perceptions.
• Annex A7: List of stakeholders interviewed.

Disclaimer

• The findings and conclusions are those of the World Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of the governments they represent.
• The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of all data presented.

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