2012年-WEF世界经济论坛_New_Models_for_Addressing_Supply_Chain_and_Transport_Risk_26页_7mb

Summary of "New Models for Addressing Supply Chain and Transport Risk"

Core Content

This report explores the evolving landscape of global supply chain and transport risk, emphasizing the need for a new, collaborative model of risk management that involves both government and business. It outlines the systemic nature of these risks and their increasing complexity due to globalization, interconnectivity, and lean processes. The report highlights the importance of resilience, adaptability, and shared responsibility in mitigating disruptions that can affect the entire network.

Main Points

1. Globalization and Interconnectivity Increase Risk Exposure

• Supply chain and transport networks have become more complex and interconnected, leading to new systemic risk management priorities.
• The global economy is increasingly dependent on these networks, which are vulnerable to external shocks that can have cascading effects.
• Most organizations have risk management protocols, but they are often limited to addressing localized disruptions.

2. Systemic Risks Are Unpredictable and Wide-Ranging

• Systemic risks are those that are not under the direct control of one organization and have global implications.
• These risks include environmental, geopolitical, economic, and technological disruptions.
• The top external disruptors, as identified by survey respondents, are:
  • Environmental: Natural disasters (59%), extreme weather (30%), pandemic (11%)
  • Geopolitical: Conflict and political unrest (46%), export/import restrictions (33%), terrorism (32%)
  • Economic: Sudden demand shocks (44%), extreme volatility in commodity prices (30%), border delays (26%), currency fluctuations (26%)
  • Technological: Information and communications disruptions (30%), transport infrastructure failures (6%)

3. Collaborative Risk Management Is Essential

• To effectively manage supply chain and transport risk, collaboration between government and business is necessary.
• Key recommendations include:
  • Improving international and interagency compatibility of resilience standards and programs.
  • Explicitly assessing supply chain and transport risks in procurement, management, and governance.
  • Developing trusted networks among suppliers, customers, competitors, and government.
  • Enhancing network risk visibility through two-way information sharing and standardized risk assessment tools.
  • Improving pre- and post-event communication to balance security and facilitation.

4. Key Risks and Their Impacts

• Environmental Risks: Natural disasters and extreme weather are the most likely to cause systemic disruptions. These events can damage infrastructure, disrupt production, and impact financial performance.
• Geopolitical Risks: Include conflict, terrorism, organized crime, and corruption. These risks are difficult to manage and can lead to significant disruptions in supply and transport.
• Economic Risks: Currency fluctuations, commodity price volatility, and sudden demand shocks are major concerns. These risks can affect both the public and private sectors.
• Technological Risks: Information and communication disruptions, along with infrastructure failures, pose a growing threat due to increased reliance on digital systems and aging infrastructure.

5. The Need for Resilience and Flexibility

• While predicting specific disruptions is less important, building resilience and flexibility is crucial.
• The report suggests that planning for specific events is not as important as having systems that can adapt and respond quickly to any type of disruption.

Key Entities Affected

• Manufacturers and Vendors
• Logistics Operators, Transport Providers and Hubs
• Retailers
• Consumers and Passengers
• General Public
• Government and Regulatory Bodies

Conclusion

• The report underscores the importance of proactive, collaborative risk management in the face of increasing global interconnectivity and complexity.
• It calls for a shift in risk management strategies to include a broader range of stakeholders and to focus on systemic resilience rather than just individual organizational preparedness.
• The goal is not to predict disruptions, but to be prepared and able to respond in a timely and informed manner to minimize their impact.

Appendix Overview

• Appendix 1: Lists existing risk management tools and processes.
• Appendix 2: Describes the methodology used in the report.
• Appendix 3: Provides definitions of key terms related to supply chain and transport risk.

Contributors and Acknowledgements

• The report is an initiative of the Risk Response Network in collaboration with Accenture.
• It was developed following discussions at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters in 2011.
• Experts from the supply chain and transport sectors contributed to the findings and recommendations.