2011年-世界发展银行全球_Uganda_Dairy_Supply_Chain_Risk_Assessment_52页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of Uganda Dairy Supply Chain Risk Assessment (February 2011)

Core Content

The report provides a comprehensive risk assessment of Uganda's dairy supply chain, highlighting the key challenges and vulnerabilities that impact the sector's performance and sustainability. It was conducted by the World Bank's Agricultural Risk Management Team in collaboration with the Uganda Dairy Development Authority (DDA) at the request of the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF).

Main Points

Economic and Social Importance of Cattle: Cattle are central to both economic and social exchanges in Uganda, particularly in rural areas and the cattle corridor. They contribute significantly to the national GDP and serve as a primary source of livelihood.
Livestock and Dairy Sector Overview: The livestock sector contributes 13.1% to agricultural GDP and 5% to national GDP. The dairy sector accounts for up to 50% of the total livestock output. Uganda's cattle population is 11.34 million, with 93% being indigenous and only 5.6% exotic or crossbreed.
Milk Production and Distribution: Uganda's total milk production in 2009 was estimated at over 1.5 billion liters, though key informants suggest this is an overestimation. About 70% of the milk reaches the market, while 30% is consumed by producing households. The informal sector dominates, accounting for 90% of marketable milk trade.
Dairy Supply Chain Structure: Four main channels are identified:
- Raw warm milk: Delivered directly from farms to consumers, often through bicycle vendors.
- Raw chilled milk: Involves a chain of intermediaries, including cooling plants, transporters, and retailers.
- Artisan-pasteurized milk: Collected and locally pasteurized at boiling centers in urban areas like Kampala.
- Commercially pasteurized milk: Formal sector with 16 processors, of which 7 are not operational.
Key Stakeholders: The dairy supply chain involves farmers, cooperatives, processors, traders, NGOs, and government bodies. The Uganda National Dairy Traders' Association (UNDATA) plays a significant role in informal trade.

Major Risks and Capacity to Manage

4.1. Production Risks

Notifiable Cattle Diseases: These include FMD, CBPP, lumpy skin disease, rabies, and anthrax. They spread quickly and require quarantine and movement restrictions. Prevention and control rely on a functional veterinary system with scientific procedures and adequate funding.
Non-notifiable Cattle Diseases: These include tick-borne diseases and others like bovine tuberculosis and leptospirosis. They are managed through farmer training and strengthening of veterinary services. Annual losses from cattle diseases amount to US$86.3 million, with morbidity (58%), mortality (30%), and post-slaughter condemnation (10%) being the main causes.
Drought: Reduces milk production and leads to cattle mortality, while also causing cattle exodus, increasing disease risk and intercommunal conflict. Mitigation includes stockpiling feed, developing water-harvesting systems, and early warning mechanisms.
Floods: Pose challenges to infrastructure and milk quality, though less frequently discussed than drought.

4.2. Market Risks

Failure of Key Organizations: The dairy sector is dominated by a few key players. Their collapse could have a widespread impact. Mitigation involves better coordination, increased competition, and sound business practices.
Milk Spoilage/Post-production Losses: These are a significant issue in the informal sector, where milk is often not cooled properly. Improving milk-cooling infrastructure and quality control measures is essential.

4.3. Enabling Environment Risks

Abrupt Regulations: Regulations like the 2002 ban on plastic containers and the 2006 chilling equipment mandate are often ad hoc and nontransparent. These can disrupt the supply chain. A long-term dairy development policy and stakeholder involvement in regulation formulation are recommended.
Cattle Rustling and Armed Conflict: These pose security risks, particularly in regions with high cattle density. Strengthening security measures and community coordination is necessary.
Human Disease: Health risks, such as zoonotic diseases, can affect both humans and animals. Public health initiatives and food safety measures are important.
Erratic Power Supply: Impacts milk cooling and processing. Investment in reliable energy infrastructure is needed.

Vulnerability and Priority Measures

The dairy supply chain is highly vulnerable to various risks, particularly those related to disease, infrastructure, and regulatory changes.
Priority Measures for Risk Management include:
- Strengthening veterinary services and farmer training.
- Improving milk-cooling infrastructure.
- Enhancing road networks for efficient transport.
- Developing early warning systems for climate-related risks.
- Creating a national dairy development policy and involving stakeholders in its formulation.
- Encouraging competition and sound business practices.
- Revitalizing cooperatives and promoting zero-grazing.

Final Remarks

The dairy sector is a vital and growing part of Uganda's economy, providing livelihoods to thousands of households.
Effective risk management is essential for the sector's development and should be integrated into broader dairy policies and strategies.
The report emphasizes the need for public-private partnerships, better coordination, and sustainable investment in infrastructure and services to enhance resilience and productivity.

Key Information

Milk Production Growth: From 365 million liters in 1991 to 1.5 billion liters in 2008, though actual production may be lower.
Regional Distribution:
- Southwestern region (Mbarara, Bushenyi) has the highest milk production.
- Central region is the second-largest contributor.
- Northern and Eastern regions are less significant, though some areas contribute to the national supply.
Capacity Utilization: Most processing plants operate at 45% capacity, indicating inefficiencies.
Informal vs. Formal Sector: The informal sector accounts for 90% of milk trade, while the formal sector handles only 10%.
Per Capita Consumption: Increased from 22 liters in 1992 to 50 liters in 2009, compared to Kenya (76 liters) and Tanzania (26 liters).
Projects and Initiatives: Several development projects, such as the East Africa Dairy Development Project and the Heifer International and SNV Biogas Project, are supporting the sector.