20251124-国泰期货-Morning_Insight_November_24,_2025_8页_762kb

Summary

• Commodity Market Analysis: Ferrous metals face demand slowdown during off-season, with high inventories prompting production cuts and inventory destocking. Iron ore and coking coal demand weaken due to macro factors, including Fed rate cut expectations strengthening the dollar and global supply increases (iron ore: 50 million tons expected, with 35 million tons to China; coking coal supply may exceed expectations from Mongolia). Delivery dynamics show iron ore favoring long positions with a tight basis, while coking coal disadvantages shorts with deep discounts.
• Futures Trading: January 2026 iron ore contract exhibits strong spot basis and weak expectations, while coking coal shows significant discounts favoring short positions. Charts indicate stable or declining open interest in various index and bond futures, reflecting market sentiment.
• News Highlights: Miscellaneous news includes county economic developments, electricity consumption growth, and Beijing trade data, but these are not central to derivatives research.
• Disclaimer: The report originates from Guotai Junan Futures, with standard disclaimers on investment risks and legal caveats.