20140415-Maybank_KERPL-Window_of_opportunity,_U_G_to_BUY_11页_504kb

报告摘要

Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Summary

Core Content

Sunny Optical (2382 HK) is a Hong Kong-based technology company that has been upgraded to a BUY recommendation from HOLD, with a revised target price of HKD10.50 (up from HKD7.70). The upgrade is based on the company's potential to benefit from increased demand and improved earnings performance.

Main Points

Market Position: Sunny Optical is a key player in the optical industry, particularly in the production of camera modules and lenses for smartphones.
Earnings Growth: The company's earnings are expected to grow significantly in FY14F, with a 5% increase in forecasts compared to the previous estimate.
Growth Drivers:
- Spill-over effects from Largan: Due to Largan's tight lens supply, Sunny Optical is expected to benefit from increased demand for 8MP lenses.
- iPhone 6 effect: Chinese smartphone OEMs are launching new models ahead of the iPhone 6 to capture market share, boosting demand for Sunny Optical's products.
- Selfie trend: Enhanced front-camera performance is expected to increase the demand for Sunny Optical's 8MP lenses.
- Multi-camera designs: More OEMs are adopting multiple rear cameras to differentiate their products, which could boost Sunny Optical's market share.
Financial Performance:
- Revenue Growth: Expected to grow by 29.3% in FY14F and 19.9% in FY15E.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected to increase from CNY0.52 to CNY0.54 in FY14F, and further to CNY0.64 in FY15E.
- Gross Margin: Expected to improve to 16.7% in 1H14F from 15.8% in 1H13F.
- Net Margin: Projected to be 7.7% in 1H14F, reflecting a stabilized margin from modules.
Valuation:
- The target price of HKD10.50 implies a 14x FY14F PE, which is considered justified by the company's 20% earnings CAGR in FY14-16F compared to a historical average of 15%.
- P/BV (Price to Book Value) is expected to decline from 3.8 in FY11A to 1.8 in FY15E.
- Net Dividend Yield is projected to rise from 1.1% in FY11A to 2.9% in FY15E.
Risks:
- Weaker-than-expected handset demand.
- Mid-to high-end segment underperformance.
- ASP erosion due to competition.
- Faster yield-rate improvement from competitors like O-film.
- Market-share loss and replacement technology (such as MEMS camera or wafer-level lenses).

Key Information

Share Price: HKD8.20
Target Price: HKD10.50 (+28%)
Market Cap (USD): $1.1B
Average Daily Trading Volume (USD): $8M
52-week high/low (HKD): 11.56/6.12
Free Float (%): 58.0
Issued Shares (m): 1,062
Major Shareholders:
- WANG WEN JIAN: 39%
- FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong): 5%
- Summit Optical Holdings, Inc.: 2%

Financial Highlights

Metric	FY11A	FY12A	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
Revenue (CNY m)	2,498.5	3,984.3	5,812.6	7,513.5	9,005.9
Core Net Profit (CNY m)	214.9	346.1	440.5	578.5	680.3
Core EPS (CNY)	0.22	0.36	0.41	0.54	0.64
Core P/E (x)	29.5	18.3	15.9	12.1	10.3
P/BV (x)	3.8	3.3	2.5	2.1	1.8
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.1	1.6	1.9	2.5	2.9
ROAE (%)	13.4	19.2	18.4	18.6	18.5
ROAA (%)	9.7	12.9	11.5	10.8	10.4
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.4	8.1	11.2	8.5	7.3

Summary of Key Financial Projections

1H14F Revenue Growth: 10% HoH or 5% YoY
1H14F Camera Module Shipment Growth: 10% HoH
1H14F Handset-Lens Shipment Growth: 100% YoY
1H14F Gross Margin: 16.7%
1H14F Net Margin: 7.7%
1H14F Operating Margin: 8.1%

Market Performance

Share Price Performance:
- 1 Month: +1.6%
- 3 Months: +4.2%
- 12 Months: -14.6%
Relative to Index:
- 1 Month: -5.0%
- 3 Months: +3.6%
- 12 Months: -19.3%

Contact Information

William Yang: (852) 2268-0675 | williamyang@kimeng.com.hk

Research Offices

Hong Kong / China: William Yang, Technology - Regional
Singapore: NG Wee Siang, Head of Research
Malaysia: Wong Chew Hann, CA, Regional Head of Institutional Research
Indonesia: Wilianto IE, Head of Research
Philippines: Luz Lorenzo, Head of Research
Thailand: Maria LAPIZ, Head of Institutional Research
Vietnam: LE Hong Lien, ACCA, Hong Sheng Wu, Head of Institutional Research

Conclusion

Sunny Optical is positioned to benefit from several growth opportunities in the smartphone camera market, including the iPhone 6 effect, the selfie trend, and multi-camera designs. The upgrade to BUY is based on improved earnings forecasts and the potential for spill-over orders from Largan's tight lens supply. However, the company faces risks such as competition, ASP erosion, and market share loss. The target price of HKD10.50 is justified by a 20% earnings CAGR in FY14-16F and a 14x FY14F PE.