20140331-Maybank_KERPL-Fewer_cooks_in_kitchen__U_G_BUY_13页_402kb

报告摘要

Agile Property (3383 HK) Summary

Core Content

Agile Property (3383 HK) is a real estate company based in China with a current share price of HKD6.28. Its market capitalization is USD2.8B, and the target price is HKD8.90, representing a 42% upside. The company has been upgraded to a BUY rating by Maybank Kim Eng, reflecting a positive outlook despite its disappointing FY13 results.

Main Points

Board Restructuring: Agile has restructured its board, removing four family members and forming a smaller, more efficient leadership team. This change is expected to improve strategic decision-making and help with the company's turnaround.
FY13 Performance: The FY13 core profit was CNY4.47b, which was 5.6% below the Bloomberg consensus. The gross profit margin (GPM) was 35.6%, missing the consensus by 2.3ppt. The net debt/attributable equity ratio rose to 90.1%, and short-term debt accounted for 31.3% of total debt.
2014 Outlook: Agile has set a conservative contract sales target of CNY48b for 2014, a 19% increase from the previous year. The company expects to achieve this with a sufficient amount of available for sale resources and an increase in the number of new projects.
Inventory and Pricing: Agile's inventory clearing efforts in several cities may lead to a slight drop in GPM for 2014 and 2015, but the company's Hainan projects, with high margins (~50-55%), are expected to offset this.
Valuation: Agile is trading at a 65% discount to net asset value (NAV), with a share price of HKD17.8. It has a 3.5x 2014 PER, 0.5x 2014 P/B, and a 8% dividend yield, which is considered very cheap by the analysts.
Downside Risks: Potential risks include project launch delays, worse-than-expected turnaround results, and unexpected unfavorable policies that may impact the property market.

Key Information

Share Price: HKD6.28
Market Cap (USD): 2.8B
Target Price (HKD): 8.90 (+42% upside)
Dividend Yield (2014): 8%
Net Debt/Attributable Equity (FY13): 90.1%
GPM (FY13): 35.6%
Core FDEPS (FY13): CNY1.21
Core FD P/E (FY13): 4.1x
P/BV (FY13): 0.6x
Share Price Performance:
- 1 Month: -5.3%
- 3 Months: -25.0%
- 12 Months: -32.1%
Major Shareholders:
- Chen's Family: 64%
- T Rowe Price: 1%
- Vanguard: 1%

Financial Highlights

FY	Revenue (CNY m)	Core Net Profit (CNY m)	Core FDEPS (CNY)	Net DPS (CNY)	Core FD P/E (x)	P/BV (x)	Dividend Yield (%)	GPM (%)
11A	22,944.6	4,035.2	1.12	0.28	4.5	0.8	5.6	53.8
12A	30,074.0	4,655.7	1.29	0.31	3.9	0.7	6.1	41.4
13E	35,436.4	4,464.7	1.21	0.38	4.1	0.6	7.6	35.6
14E	43,413.6	4,948.6	1.34	0.40	3.7	0.5	7.9	34.9
15E	50,483.6	5,686.2	1.54	0.42	3.3	0.5	8.4	34.3

Valuation Table

Company	Share Price (HKD)	Mkt Cap (USD b)	3M ATV (USD m)	2013 Perf (%)	2014 Ytd Perf (%)	1-Month Perf (%)	Est Dis to NAV (HKD)	Dis to NAV Est (%)	PER (2013)	PER (2014)	PER (2015)	P/B (2013)	P/B (2014)	P/B (2015)	Div Yield (2013)	Div Yield (2014)	Div Yield (2015)
Agile	6.28	2.8	7.4	-24%	-24%	-5%	17.8	-65%	3.2	3.9	3.5	0.48	0.59	0.52	7.6%	7.9%	8.4%
COLI	19.82	20.9	73.8	-6%	-9%	-5%	27.9	-29%	7.5	8.4	7.0	5.6	1.37	1.55	2.4%	2.7%	3.4%
Country Garden	3.21	7.6	24.1	-30%	22%	9%	8.5	-58%	5.2	4.6	3.9	0.89	0.76	0.66	4.2%	4.8%	4.8%
CRL	16.90	12.7	18.1	-9%	-12%	-4%	26.0	-35%	9.2	11.3	9.3	0.81	0.76	0.66	2.9%	3.6%	4.2%
Evergrande	3.60	6.8	24.1	-30%	22%	9%	8.5	-58%	5.2	4.6	3.9	0.89	0.76	0.66	4.2%	4.8%	4.8%
Franshion	2.49	2.9	3.1	-3%	-8%	3%	5.5	-55%	4.6	8.7	7.1	0.58	0.72	0.66	3.4%	4.2%	5.5%
Greentown	7.90	2.2	5.2	-17%	-33%	-22%	28.7	-72%	1.5	2.5	2.1	0.28	0.54	0.44	7.9%	9.0%	10.1%
GZ R&F	10.42	4.3	9.0	-12%	-8%	-1%	21.8	-52%	2.5	4.7	4.1	0.58	0.84	0.73	7.9%	8.0%	9.3%
Hopson	6.95	2.0	0.9	-25%	-26%	-4%	30.1	-77%	1.3	5.8	4.5	0.12	0.27	0.25	0.5%	1.2%	1.8%
KWG Property	4.18	1.6	2.5	-26%	-3%	6%	9.3	-55%	1.9	4.1	3.4	0.29	0.54	0.49	8.7%	7.3%	9.0%
Longfor	10.40	7.3	5.6	-29%	-4%	-3%	17.7	-41%	2.4	7.4	6.1	1.29	1.10	0.95	6.4%	8.0%	9.6%
Poly Property	3.37	1.6	5.0	-32%	-19%	-5%	10.6	-68%	2.4	4.7	3.7	0.29	0.42	0.39	6.4%	8.0%	9.6%
Shimao	16.26	7.3	19.6	22%	-9%	4%	27.6	-41%	3.6	6.2	4.7	0.48	1.08	0.92	5.0%	6.1%	7.4%
Sino-Ocean	4.14	3.9	2.7	-12%	-19%	0%	8.4	-51%	4.5	8.6	6.6	0.37	0.59	0.55	5.1%	5.8%	6.3%
Sunac	4.28	1.8	6.4	-23%	-8%	4%	10.9	-61%	3.5	2.8	2.1	0.81	0.64	0.51	2.9%	3.5%	4.7%
Yuexiu Prop	1.55	4.2	3.9	-70%	-22%	50%	10.6	-68%	2.4	4.7	3.7	0.29	0.42	0.39	6.4%	8.0%	9.6%

Conclusion

Despite the poor FY13 results, Agile Property is viewed as a potential turnaround candidate due to its new leadership and conservative 2014 sales target. The company's valuation is considered very attractive, with a significant discount to NAV. However, there are risks associated with project delays and market conditions that could affect its performance.

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