20230719-招银国际-丘钛科技-01478.HK-1H23_profit_warning__Maintain_BUY_on_2H_gradual_recovery_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Q-Tech reported a net profit decline of 60-80% YoY for 1H23, ranging from RMB33.1-66.2 million, below consensus expectations. Key reasons include: 21% YoY drop in mobile CCM shipments due to weak smartphone demand, pressure on gross profit margin (GPM) from lower utilization and unfavorable foreign exchange, and higher R&D expenses driven by the auto and domain controllers business.

The outlook is positive, with expectations of business recovery through supply chain restocking for product launches in 3Q23 and spec upgrades (larger resolution, optical image stabilization, and periscope features). Mobile CCM revenue is projected to grow by 13.8% YoY in H2 2023, driven by these upgrades. GPM is anticipated to improve to 8.5% in H2 2023E, compared to 5.5% in H1, due to better utilization and reduced FX headwinds.

Non-smartphone segments, particularly IoT and automotive CCM, are highlighted as bright spots. Non-smartphone revenue in FY23E is expected to grow 108% YoY, supported by ramp-up in IoT products (e.g., DJI drone, smart watches, sweeping robots) and strong auto CCM demand.

Maintain a BUY recommendation based on a new target price of HK$3.59 (15.3% upside), equivalent to 10x estimated FY23E earnings per share (EPS). The stock is attractive at current P/E ratios (8.7x FY23, 5.5x FY24), which are close to the lower end of historical averages, reflecting the expected recovery from recent weakness.

Revenue: Declined from HK$18,663 million in 2021A to HK$12,985 million in FY23E, with YoY growth slowing to -5.6% in FY23E.
Net Profit: Ranging from HK$862.8 million in FY21A to HK$352.4 million in FY23E, with expected strong EPS growth in 2023E due to recovery.
Margins: GPM is bottoming out in H1 2023 at under 6%, projected to recover to 8.9% by FY25E.
Valuation Metrics: 12-15x P/E ratios for 2023-2025, supported by catalysts like shipment recovery and product launches.

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