2017年电动汽车与自动驾驶汽车消费者调查（英文版）_31页_3mb

Summary of ASPIRING DRIVERS WEIGH AUTOMOTIVE REVOLUTION

Core Content

This document presents the results of a survey conducted by Driving-Tests.org (DTO) in March and April 2017, aimed at understanding the attitudes of its users—primarily aspiring drivers—toward electric vehicles (EVs) and self-driving cars. The survey included four questions, and the data was analyzed using statistical methods, including chi-square tests and logistic regression, to uncover relationships between responses and demographic factors like age group.

Main Survey Questions

1. Would you consider purchasing an electric vehicle over a comparably priced gas-powered vehicle?

   • 30.6% said "Yes", 69.4% said "No" (margin of error: ±0.1%).
   • All age groups rejected EVs by a two-to-one margin, with the youngest and oldest groups showing similar levels of rejection.

2. How concerned would you be about riding in a fully self-driving car?

   • Responses ranged from 0 (not at all concerned) to 10 (extremely concerned).
   • 23.9% were extremely concerned (10), and 18.8% were not at all concerned (0).
   • The mean score was 5.62, with a wide standard deviation of 3.66.

3. Will the benefits of self-driving vehicles outweigh their risks and costs?

   • 15.1% believed the benefits would definitely outweigh the risks, while 21.2% believed they would not.
   • The mean score was 4.90, with a standard deviation of 3.46.
   • A significant portion (30.8%) had strong opinions, either very concerned or very confident in the benefits.

4. Which manufacturer do you think will sell the most electric and self-driving vehicles in the next 10 years?

   • Tesla was the most selected brand (23.4%), followed by Toyota (19.9%), Honda (17.2%), Chevrolet (14.4%), Ford (13.4%), and "Other or None" (11.6%).
   • Teenagers (who make up over 40% of DTO's visitors) were more likely to favor Tesla, while older age groups leaned toward Toyota.

Key Findings

• Electric Vehicles:

  • A majority (69.4%) of respondents said they would not consider purchasing an electric vehicle.
  • The rejection was consistent across all age groups, with only a slight variation in the margin of rejection.

• Self-Driving Cars:

  • Strong concerns were expressed, with 23.9% extremely concerned and 18.8% not at all concerned.
  • 30.8% of respondents had strong opinions (either very concerned or very confident in the benefits).
  • A significant portion (21.2%) believed the risks outweighed the benefits.

• Manufacturer Preferences:

  • Tesla was the most favored brand, leading Toyota by 3.5 percentage points.
  • The margin of error was very small (±0.1%), indicating that even small differences in brand preference were statistically significant.

• Age Group Influence:

  • Millennials (born 1982–2004) dominated the survey, representing 75.1% of respondents.
  • The distribution of responses was adjusted to account for unequal age group widths.
  • The null hypothesis of independent responses by age group was rejected for all questions, indicating that age significantly influenced responses.

Statistical Analysis

• Chi-Square Tests:

  • Used to test for independence between variables such as age group and responses to questions.
  • The P-values were extremely low (e.g., < 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁶), indicating strong statistical significance.

• Logistic Regression:

  • Question 1 (electric car preference) was predicted using age group and responses to the other three questions.
  • This analysis showed that age and responses to other questions significantly influenced the decision to purchase an electric car.

• Data Cleaning:

  • The dataset was cleaned to remove erroneous records with multiple responses.
  • 510 records were excluded from the 157,000 collected.
  • Survicate was used for data collection and export, with R used for statistical analysis.

Response Drop-Off

• The survey had a significant drop-off rate, with the largest drop-offs occurring early in the process.
• The drop-off rates were as follows:
  • Question 1: -12.6%
  • Question 2: -24.4%
  • Question 3: -31.3%
  • Question 4: -36.3%
• This suggests that respondents were more likely to abandon the survey earlier, possibly due to the length or complexity of the questions.

Conclusion

The survey highlights a general reluctance among DTO's users to consider electric vehicles, despite the growing popularity of EVs. Concerns about self-driving cars are widespread, with a significant portion of respondents expressing strong unease. However, there is a notable correlation between age and preferences, with younger users more likely to support Tesla and older users more likely to favor Toyota. The statistical analysis reinforces that responses are not independent and are influenced by both age and other survey questions.