IMF国际货币组织全球-Republic-of-Armenia_2019-Article-IV-Consultation-and-Request-for-a-Stand_127页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Stand-By Arrangement for the Republic of Armenia

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Armenia, amounting to SDR 180 million (about US$248.2 million), on May 17, 2019. This SBA is intended to be precautionary, meaning that Armenia will not draw on the funds unless external shocks lead to balance of payments needs. The arrangement aims to support the country's efforts to strengthen economic fundamentals, implement structural reforms, and maintain macroeconomic stability.

Main Objectives

Fiscal Consolidation: To bring central government debt below 50% of GDP in the medium term while maintaining fiscal space for critical spending.
Monetary Policy: To stabilize inflation and ensure the exchange rate remains flexible.
Financial Sector Resilience: To improve financial stability, develop capital markets, and enhance access to finance.
Structural Reforms: To promote private sector development, attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and increase economic diversification.

Key Policies and Reforms

Fiscal Policy

The authorities are committed to a sustainable fiscal path under a fiscal rule.
A revenue-neutral tax reform is planned, including measures to flatten the personal income tax profile, reduce tax rates, and simplify special tax systems.
Tax administration improvements and sustainable compensating measures will be implemented to offset potential revenue shortfalls and reduce income inequality.

Monetary Policy

The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) will continue to focus on inflation targeting.
A flexible exchange rate system will be maintained to respond to external shocks and preserve competitiveness.

Financial Sector Policy

The financial sector will be safeguarded through risk-based supervision, macroprudential measures, and enhanced foreign currency liquidity buffers.
The development of capital markets and improving access to finance are emphasized.

Structural Reforms

The new government has pledged to combat corruption, improve governance, and enhance the business environment.
Public-private partnership (PPP) legislation is being prepared with international support.
Human capital development and increased female labor participation are encouraged to support inclusive growth.

Economic Outlook and Risks

Growth: Expected to moderate to 4.6% in 2019 and stabilize at 4.5% in the medium term.
Inflation: Projected to converge to the CBA's medium-term target of 4%.
Current Account: Expected to improve to -7.3% of GDP in 2019, and gradually reduce to -6.2% of GDP in 2023.
Downside Risks: Primarily external, including global trade tensions and financial market turbulence.
Upside Potential: Faster reform progress could boost potential growth.

Key Financial Indicators (2016–2023)

Indicator	2016 Act.	2017 Act.	2018 Act.	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Real GDP (percent change)	0.2	7.5	5.2	4.6	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5
Final consumption expenditure, Contrib. to Growth	-0.9	7.4	2.7	3.3	3.4	2.7	3.5	2.1
Gross fixed capital formation, Contrib. to Growth	-2.4	1.5	0.8	6.8	4.6	5.0	4.2	3.1
Changes in inventories, Contrib. to Growth	0.7	1.1	4.0	-4.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net exports of goods and services, Contrib. to Growth	3.1	-1.2	-1.8	-1.2	-3.4	-3.1	-3.2	-0.6
Gross domestic product (in billions of dram)	5,067	5,569	6,003	6,549	7,102	7,745	8,437	9,169
Gross domestic product per capita (in U.S. dollars)	3,524	3,872	4,186	4,533	4,764	5,068	5,386	5,710
CPI (period average; percent change)	-1.4	1.0	2.5	2.1	3.0	3.7	4.0	4.1
CPI (end of period; percent change)	-1.1	2.6	1.8	2.5	3.3	3.8	4.1	4.3
GDP deflator (percent change)	0.3	2.2	2.5	4.3	3.8	4.4	4.2	4.0
Unemployment rate (in percent)	20.2	18.6	18.1	17.9	17.7	17.8	17.7	17.6
Investment (in percent of GDP)	18.0	19.0	22.4	23.6	24.1	24.4	24.9	25.6
National savings (in percent of GDP)	15.8	16.6	13.3	16.3	16.8	17.5	18.4	19.4
Reserve money (percent change)	13.1	-1.0	17.8	9.0	9.5	8.5	8.5	8.5
Broad money (percent change)	17.5	18.5	7.4	7.0	9.5	8.5	8.5	8.5
Private sector credit growth (percent change)	6.0	16.5	17.2	16.0	15.5	13.0	12.5	11.0
Public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt (in percent of GDP)	56.7	58.9	55.8	54.6	53.7	52.3	51.1	50.1
Share of foreign currency debt (in percent)	80.9	81.1	77.5	77.6	76.5	75.4	73.9	74.3
Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars)	3,500	4,307	4,669	5,074	5,361	5,744	6,137	6,625
Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars)	-4,516	-5,710	-6,583	-7,132	-7,467	-7,892	-8,371	-8,875
Current account balance (in percent of GDP)	-2.3	-2.4	-9.1	-7.3	-7.3	-6.9	-6.5	-6.2
FDI (net, in millions of U.S. dollars)	272	228	266	296	318	346	376	407
Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars)	2,204	2,314	2,249	2,284	2,373	2,418	2,468	2,633
Import cover	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.7	3.8	3.5	3.3	3.4

Key Information

IMF Approval: The SBA was approved on May 17, 2019, with an initial disbursement of SDR 25.714 million (US$35.5 million) and the remainder available through six semi-annual reviews.
Government Commitment: The new government, following a peaceful political transition in 2018, has prioritized structural reforms, anti-corruption measures, and improving governance.
Program Pillars: The program is based on four pillars: fiscal consolidation, monetary policy stability, financial sector resilience, and structural reforms.
Challenges: High unemployment and poverty persist, and the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks. Public debt is relatively high, and revenue mobilization is a key focus.

Executive Board Statement

The Board approved the SBA and supported the authorities' reform agenda.
Emphasis was placed on ownership and implementation of reforms for success.
The fiscal rule is a key tool for ensuring debt sustainability and fiscal discipline.
Tax administration and revenue mobilization are essential for sustaining growth and debt sustainability.
The monetary policy should remain inflation-targeting with a flexible exchange rate.
Structural reforms are needed to promote private sector development, attract FDI, and increase economic diversification.