IMF国际货币组织全球-Rwanda_Staff-Report-for-2019-Article-IV-Consultation-and-a-Request-for-a-Three_104页_2mb

Rwanda: IMF 2019 Article IV Consultation and Three-Year Policy Coordination Instrument

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 19/211 outlines the results of the 2019 Article IV Consultation and the approval of a Three-Year Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for Rwanda. This report highlights Rwanda’s continued progress in sustaining high and inclusive growth, reducing poverty, and implementing its National Strategy for Transformation (NST), which is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The program is designed to support the NST, enhance debt and external sustainability, and promote private sector-led growth.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth: Rwanda achieved 8.6% real GDP growth in 2018, exceeding projections, driven by construction and services. Growth is expected to remain around 8% in 2019, supported by public and private investment.
• Inflation: Headline inflation has been below the target range for several months, prompting the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) to lower its policy rate in May 2019.
• Current Account: The current account deficit in 2018 was 7.9% of GDP, primarily due to airport construction and domestic production delays. It is expected to decline in subsequent years.
• Reserves: Gross international reserves increased to $1,867 million in 2023, equivalent to 4.5 months of next year's imports.
• Poverty Reduction: The 2016-17 Household Living Conditions Survey showed a reduction in poverty to 38.2%, but the pace slowed due to drought and rising food prices.

Program Objectives and Structure

• The new PCI-supported program aims to support NST implementation, maintain macroeconomic stability, and ensure external and debt sustainability.
• The program includes four pillars:
  1. Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Recalibrating fiscal objectives and easing the fiscal stance to support NST while maintaining low debt risks.
  2. Domestic Revenue Mobilization: Strengthening tax policy capacity and streamlining tax exemptions to boost domestic revenue.
  3. Public Financial Management (PFM): Improving transparency and identifying potential fiscal risks.
  4. Monetary Policy: Reinforcing the interest rate-based framework and deepening financial markets to enhance monetary transmission.

Structural Reforms

• The NST emphasizes private sector growth, financial development, and improved education and skills.
• Key structural reforms include:
  • Enhancing financial inclusion and access to financial services.
  • Improving public financial management and fiscal transparency.
  • Strengthening monetary policy transmission through active liquidity management and enhanced communications.
  • Encouraging domestic savings and diversification of exports.
  • Supporting agricultural productivity through training, irrigation, and market linkages.

Risks and Challenges

• Balanced Risks: The program faces balanced risks, including lower-than-expected ODA, climate change, commodity price volatility, and regional security issues.
• Upward Risks: Enhanced regional trade ties and large public and private investment projects could boost growth.
• Downward Risks: Uncertain ODA, weather variability, and external shocks could challenge economic stability.

IMF Assessment

• The IMF Executive Board commended Rwanda’s strong macroeconomic performance and nimble policy responses.
• They emphasized the importance of continued strong ownership of the reform agenda, donor support, and capacity building.
• The new monetary policy framework at BNR is considered appropriate, and the exchange rate adjustment helped align the external position with fundamentals.
• The program is supported by the IMF staff, and the three-year PCI is approved to reinforce fiscal and monetary policies.

Summary of Key Policy Commitments

Fiscal Policy

• Maintain a neutral fiscal stance to support NST implementation while keeping debt risks low.
• Increase domestic revenue mobilization through tax reforms and streamlining exemptions.
• Improve fiscal transparency and risk management.

Monetary Policy

• Continue monetary policy reforms to strengthen interest rate-based framework.
• Deepen financial and capital markets and improve monetary transmission.
• Enhance liquidity management and policy communication.

Structural Policies

• Encourage private sector participation as a growth engine.
• Promote financial development and access to financial services.
• Improve education quality and technical skills.
• Diversify exports and production base toward higher value-added sectors.

Conclusion

Rwanda’s economic progress is notable, with high growth and poverty reduction achieved through strategic policies and strong macroeconomic management. The new PCI program is expected to support the National Strategy for Transformation (NST) and SDG targets, while maintaining debt and external sustainability. The IMF has approved the program, highlighting the need for continued reform efforts, donor support, and private sector engagement to achieve long-term development goals.