2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Honduras_Second_Reviews_Under_the_Stand_96页_2mb

Honduras: Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Standby Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the IMF's Second Reviews of Honduras's economic program under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Standby Credit Facility (SCF), completed on December 17, 2015. The program, approved in December 2014, was a blended arrangement of SDR 129.5 million (equivalent to 100% of Honduras' quota). The reviews were conducted on a lapse of time basis, meaning the Board approved the program without formal discussions.

Main Points and Key Information

Macroeconomic Performance

• Real GDP growth in 2015 is projected at 3.5%, driven by sectoral expansion, favorable terms of trade, growth in trading partners, and strong capital inflows.
• Inflation remained low through October 2015 at 2.5%, below the program projection of 3.3%, due to better monetary and fiscal policies and lower fuel prices.
• Net international reserves (NIR) increased to US$2,614 million by October 2015, nearly reaching the end-December target of US$2,730 million.
• For 2016, the outlook remains positive, with inflation projected at 5% and GDP growth at 3.5%. The external current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.8% of GDP, and NIR is projected to reach US$3,005 million by end-2016.

Program Implementation

• All 2015 end-June performance criteria were met, with significant margins.
• Structural benchmarks for June and September 2015 were broadly observed.
• The authorities are advancing structural reforms, including the introduction of a Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL), overhaul of tax administration, and reforms to the Honduran Social Security Institute (IHSS).
• The 2016 fiscal program aims to lock in fiscal gains and increase international reserves, with targets of 3.5% deficit for the central government and 2.0% deficit for the combined public sector.

Risks and Outlook

• Risks to the program have subsided, including external shocks, social spending pressures, and policy slippages.
• Contingency measures were taken following the designations of Grupo Continental by the U.S. Treasury, which led to the liquidation of Banco Continental and the seizure of assets from 19 companies.
• The macroeconomic impact of the designation is expected to be limited if the authorities can restore business normalcy for the affected entities.
• El Niño weather phenomena could slow growth, particularly in the agricultural sector.

Program Design and Financing

• The blended program consists of a 36-month SBA (SDR 77.7 million) and a 24-month SCF (SDR 51.8 million).
• The program is treated as precautionary, and the authorities plan to continue this approach.
• The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information in published documents.

Key Documents and Attachments

• Press Release No. 15/579: Announces the completion of the second reviews.
• Staff Report: Provides detailed analysis of economic developments and program implementation.
• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are separately released and included in the Staff Report.
• Annex I: Includes Debt Sustainability Analysis.
• Appendix I: Contains the Letter of Intent.
• Attachment I: The Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.
• Attachment II: The Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The 2016 fiscal program aims to institutionalize fiscal gains and create fiscal space for infrastructure investment.
• The central government deficit is targeted at 3.5% of GDP, and the combined public sector deficit at 2.0%.
• Tax reforms are a priority, including the simplification of the tax code and the introduction of a Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL).
• The wage bill is to be controlled, with a nominal annual increase of no more than 5%.
• The Finance Ministry has implemented the integrated financial management system (SIAFI) to manage public spending and employment.

B. Public Financial Management

• The FRL is being introduced to support medium-term fiscal sustainability.
• The public investment management system (SNIP) is being improved and aligned with international best practices.
• The authorities are working on a fiscal contingency unit to assess risks from public-private partnerships (PPPs).

Structural Reforms

• Tax administration is being overhauled with the employment of skilled professionals and improved methodologies.
• Public enterprises are being strengthened, with HONDUTEL making progress on legal and financial audits.
• The Regulatory Commission for the Electricity Sector (CREE) is expected to be fully operational by December 2015.
• The IHSS reform is being advanced, with a draft law to be submitted to Congress by end-November 2015.

Summary

The IMF's second reviews for Honduras were completed successfully, with strong program implementation and positive macroeconomic outcomes. The authorities are advancing structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, while managing risks from external shocks and the Grupo Continental designation. The program is being treated as precautionary, and the 2016 fiscal program focuses on locking in gains and improving public investment. The IMF recommends completion of the second review, based on the authorities' performance and updated commitments.