IMF-马尔代夫：金融部门评估方案关于银行压力测试和气候风险分析的技术说明（英）-2024.1-69页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 24/19: Maldives Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)

This report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) evaluates the Maldives' financial sector, focusing on systemic vulnerabilities, bank stress testing, and climate risk analysis. The assessment, based on data up to December 2022, highlights persistent macrofinancial risks despite post-pandemic economic recovery.

Key Findings:

Vulnerabilities: The Maldives faces elevated fiscal and external risks due to high public debt, widening current account deficits, and FX shortages. Systemic financial vulnerabilities include a strong government-bank nexus, high dollarization, and weak liquidity management. Credit and liquidity risks were tested through stress scenarios, revealing the banking system could withstand moderate shocks but remained vulnerable to sovereign stress, credit concentration, and liquidity mismatches.
Stress Testing: Solvency stress tests under three scenarios (baseline, moderate, severe) showed the system mostly resilient but sensitive to sovereign debt exchanges and large borrower defaults. Capital adequacy ratios dropped significantly in severe cases when accounting for high risk weights on sovereign holdings. Liquidity stress tests indicated ample buffers but risks in foreign currency liquidity, with deposit concentration posing withdrawal risks. Market risks, such as interest rate and foreign currency exposure, were moderate.
Climate Risk Analysis: Physical climate risks, including sea-level rise and coastal flooding, are severe for the Maldives due to its geography. Mid-century climate impacts on the banking system were mild, with direct losses estimated at 3-3.4% of capital stock under the 95th percentile scenario. However, end-century risks could be catastrophic, potentially increasing losses up to 734% of GDP if not addressed. Limitations include data granularity and uncertainty in adaptation scenarios.
Recommendations: Improve supervisory data integrity, enhance methodologies for stress testing and climate risk assessment, and foster inter-agency collaboration. Short-term actions include implementing climate risk analysis, better data collection, and regulatory adjustments to handle currency mismatches.

Overall, the report underscores the need for robust financial reforms and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities and ensure long-term stability.