2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Algeria_Selected_Issues_24页_691kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Algeria

Core Content

This paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities for improving public spending efficiency in Algeria to foster more inclusive growth. It highlights the structural issues that have hindered economic development, including high unemployment, weak private sector growth, and low-quality public services. The paper also examines the inefficiencies in public investment and wage bill management, and offers recommendations to enhance these areas.

Main Issues and Key Findings

A. Background

Social and Economic Challenges: The 1990s saw significant social unrest and economic difficulties, including infrastructure gaps, a mass migration to cities, and macroeconomic instability due to the 1986 oil price crash.
Progress in Socio-Economic Indicators: Despite challenges, Algeria has made notable improvements in education, health, and poverty reduction. The Human Development Index (HDI) increased from 0.6 in 1990 to 0.74 in 2014.
Infrastructure Gaps: Algeria's infrastructure quality and access remain below international standards, particularly in electricity, roads, and air transport.
Public Spending Model: Public spending has historically been funded by hydrocarbon revenues, which are not sustainable due to finite resources and declining oil prices.
Institutional Weaknesses: Weak governance and corruption risks have undermined public spending efficiency and fiscal discipline.

B. Improving Public Investment Efficiency

1. Investment Efficiency

Weak Efficiency: Algeria's public investment efficiency is lower than that of other oil exporters and the global average.
Capital Spending Multipliers: Algeria's multipliers are below the regional average, indicating inefficiency in capital spending.
ICOR Trends: The Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) has increased with public investment, suggesting diminishing returns.
Infrastructure Quality and Quantity: Algeria's infrastructure quality is lower than peers, and its quantity is less efficient, especially in comparison to countries with strong institutions.

2. Efficiency Gains in the 2010s

Project Delays: Reduced by more than half since 2010, though still significant.
Cost Overruns: Decreased from 45% in the 2000s to 16% in the 2010s, with variations between 10% and 22%.
Comparison with International Standards: The cost overruns range is now comparable to international benchmarks.

3. Institutional Weaknesses

Weak PIM Institutions: In the 2000s, weak institutional frameworks and insufficient project preparation led to inefficiencies.
Overlapping Responsibilities: Multiple authorities and stakeholders complicated project management.
Lack of MTEF and Performance-Based Budgeting: The absence of a medium-term expenditure framework and performance-based budgeting created misalignment between budget planning and sectoral priorities.

4. Recent Reforms

CNED Establishment: The Caisse Nationale d'Equipement pour le Développement (CNED) was created in 2004 to oversee public investment.
Reforms in 2010s: Include a new manual for investment project management, a decree on public procurement, strengthened cost revaluation rules, and budget reforms such as the adoption of a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) in 2017.
Remaining Challenges: Coordination between sectors and regions is weak, ex-post evaluations are limited, and budget execution monitoring is inadequate.

5. Recommendations

Align Macroeconomic Objectives with Investment Planning: Implement a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) to ensure that public investment supports policy goals.
Enhance Sectoral Coordination: Improve intersectoral coordination to avoid duplication and inefficiencies.
Strengthen Budget Execution: Improve real-time monitoring and control of spending commitments.
Central Oversight: Empower an investment authority to review and discard projects that do not align with national objectives.
Enforce Investment Regulations: Strengthen the capacity of contracting authorities and ensure compliance with public investment rules and international best practices.
Ensure Competitive Public Procurement: Improve transparency and fairness in procurement processes.

C. Improving Wage Bill Efficiency

1. Public Wage Bill

High Level: The wage bill is high by international standards, representing about 10% of GDP from 2005 to 2016.
Composition: Public employment is a major component of the wage bill, with central government workers accounting for about 20% of total formal employment.
Drivers: High public employment is partly due to the government's role in absorbing the labor force, especially in a region with high youth unemployment and social instability.

2. Challenges

Sustainability Issues: High wage bill levels are not sustainable, especially as hydrocarbon revenues decline.
Distortions in Private Sector: High public wages and employment have discouraged private sector development, reduced incentives for entrepreneurship, and distorted the demand for education.
Inefficiencies: Excessive spending on wages and public employment may reduce the effectiveness of public services and hinder economic growth.

3. Recommendations

Ensure Consistency with Fiscal Objectives: Align wage bill management with fiscal consolidation and growth goals.
Review Employment Policies: Assess whether current employment and compensation policies support the delivery of high-quality public services.
Improve Transparency and Accountability: Strengthen the monitoring of wage bill expenditures and ensure fair and competitive public procurement practices.

Conclusion

Improving public spending efficiency is critical for Algeria's long-term economic growth and social development. The country must address inefficiencies in public investment and wage bill management, enhance institutional capacity, and align its spending policies with macroeconomic objectives. These reforms will help reduce public spending distortions, improve the quality and reach of public services, and support the development of a more dynamic private sector.

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