2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malaysia_Selected_Issues_27页_824kb

Malaysia: Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the medium-term fiscal strategy for Malaysia, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as background for the periodic consultation with the country. The strategy aims to reduce the federal fiscal deficit from 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3% in 2015 and eventually to zero by 2020. The report evaluates the necessary fiscal adjustments, focusing on both revenue mobilization and expenditure measures, and discusses the growth and equity implications of various policies.

Main Objectives

• Reduce fiscal deficit: From 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3% in 2015 and to zero by 2020.
• Stabilize debt-to-GDP ratio: Targeting around 40% by 2020, consistent with the IMF's recommended debt target.
• Improve fiscal sustainability: Through structural reforms and a balanced approach to consolidation.

Key Fiscal Measures

Revenue Mobilization

• Tax Revenues: Low compared to other middle and high-income countries (15–16% of GDP in 2011–2012). The tax-to-GDP ratio excluding oil and gas is 12.2%, significantly below the 22% and 33% in higher-middle and high-income countries respectively.
• Tax Gap Analysis: Indicates substantial potential for increasing indirect tax revenues. The predicted norm for consumption taxes is 6–6.3% of GDP, suggesting a gap of 2.7–3 percentage points. Direct income taxes are already at relatively high levels, so further increases are unlikely.
• Corporate Income Taxes (CIT): The current CIT rate is relatively high, but the 2014 Budget announced a reduction of 1 percentage point in 2016 to offset the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Rationalizing tax incentives could yield up to 0.5% of GDP in savings.
• Personal Income Taxes (PIT): Currently at 2.4% of GDP. The 2014 Budget proposed reducing PIT rates by 1–3 percentage points for the top income brackets, potentially increasing the progressivity of the tax system.
• Property and Wealth Taxes: Very low (1.1% of GDP) and primarily transaction-based. Introducing recurrent wealth taxes could be a progressive and growth-friendly measure.
• Non-Tax Revenues: Comprise about 25% of total revenues in 2012, mainly from oil and gas-related sources. These are not sustainable in the long term, and the consolidation strategy aims to reduce reliance on them.

Expenditure Measures

• Subsidy Rationalization: A major component of fiscal consolidation. Fuel subsidies, which reached 4.7% of GDP in 2012–13, are expected to be reduced by 0.4–0.5% of GDP in 2014. Gradual price adjustments and automatic mechanisms are recommended to ensure sustainability.
• Public Sector Wage Bill: Increased from 5.3% of GDP in 2008 to 6.2% in 2013. Controlling growth through hiring restrictions and limiting new posts is advised.
• Public Procurement Efficiency: Already implemented, leading to savings of 0.2–0.3% of GDP. Further efficiency gains could be achieved with an administrative productivity tax of 1.5%, yielding 0.1–0.2% of GDP in savings over five years.
• Social Safety Nets and Transfers: Consolidating these programs could improve targeting and efficiency. Reducing grants to public universities and rationalizing student loan subsidies are also potential areas for savings.
• Development Spending: Has declined significantly as a share of GDP, and further cuts could harm growth. The authorities are advised to maintain investment in infrastructure and development priorities.

Key Considerations

• Growth and Equity Trade-offs: Fiscal adjustments must balance growth and equity effects. Public investment has high fiscal multipliers, making it a less desirable tool for consolidation.
• Pace of Adjustment: A gradual approach is recommended to avoid short-term negative impacts on growth and inflation. However, some front-loading may be necessary to signal fiscal discipline.
• External Vulnerabilities: Malaysia's reliance on foreign investors in the government securities market makes it more exposed to external shocks. Therefore, fiscal strategy must consider macroeconomic stability.
• Structural Reforms: Introducing broad-based, sustainable tax reforms and improving macro-fiscal institutions are critical to the long-term success of the consolidation strategy.

Conclusion

The Malaysian authorities are implementing a multi-year fiscal consolidation strategy, which includes reducing subsidies, reforming the tax system, and improving public expenditure efficiency. The strategy is designed to ensure fiscal sustainability while maintaining growth and equity. The IMF emphasizes the importance of a balanced and transparent approach, with a focus on structural reforms that can lead to long-term fiscal savings and improved public finances.

Main Points

• The fiscal consolidation strategy aims to reduce the deficit from 4.0% to 3% in 2015 and to zero by 2020.
• Revenue mobilization will focus on increasing indirect taxes, rationalizing tax incentives, and improving tax administration.
• Expenditure measures will involve subsidy rationalization, controlling public sector wage growth, and improving the efficiency of public spending.
• The strategy must balance growth and equity, and avoid excessive reliance on volatile oil and gas revenues.
• Structural reforms are essential for ensuring the sustainability and effectiveness of fiscal adjustments.