2023-05-04-莱坊-European_Office_Dashboard_-_Berlin_Q1_2023_2页_538kb

报告摘要

Office Market Summary - Q1 2023

Core Content Overview

This document provides a quarterly update on the occupier activity in the European office market, with a specific focus on Berlin. It includes key figures, market trends, and insights into the broader economic context such as new business starts, employment expectations, and unemployment rates in Germany.

Key Figures

Take Up: 137,100 square metres
Prime Rent: €522 per square metre (PSQM)
Vacancy Rate: 3.60%
Year-over-Year (YoY) Change in Vacancy Rate: +24% (from 2.90% in Q1 2022)
Office Space Completed: 115,000 sqm (30% pre-let)
Under Construction: 629,000 sqm (70% pre-let)
Development Pipeline Until 2026: Over 600,000 sqm annually

Main Market Trends

Leasing Activity:
- A 7.7% decline compared to Q1 2022.
- 30% below the 5-year average.
- Notable large deals: Boston Consulting Group (19,000 sqm) and Mazahn Job Center (12,000 sqm).
Vacancy Rates:
- Increased by 30 basis points to 3.60% in Q1 2023.
- Still below ten-year highs of 8.30% (2013), but above the 5-year average of 2.14%.
Development Activity:
- High levels of under-construction office space, with 70% pre-let.
- Expected continuation of rising vacancy rates in upcoming quarters, potentially leading to a tenant-favourable market in 2024.

Economic Context in Germany

New Business Starts:
- Activity exceeded pre-COVID levels in 2021 and has since slightly leveled in 2022.
- Preliminary figures for Q1 2023 show more activity than the 5-year average.
Employment Expectations in the Service Sector:
- Fluctuated in Q1 2023, reaching 10.4 in March.
- Below the 5-year average but well above the negative levels seen in 2020.
Unemployment Rate:
- Increased to 5.6% in March 2023, after remaining at 5.5% since August 2022.
- Highest rates in Bremen and Berlin (8.9%), lowest in Bavaria (Bayern) and Baden-Württemberg.
Services PMI:
- Continued to improve in Q1 2023, following a positive trend in Q4 2022.
- Reached 53.7 in March, indicating expansionary territory and growth in services activity.

Key Insights

Despite a decline in leasing activity compared to previous years, the market still saw significant large deals.
The increase in vacancy rates is expected to continue due to the high development pipeline.
The service sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved PMI readings and positive employment expectations.
Unemployment in Germany remains relatively stable, with regional variations noted.