2012年-世界发展银行全球_Armenia___Promoting_Productive_Employment_50页_14mb

Summary of the Report: Promoting Productive Employment in Armenia

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, examines labor market outcomes in Armenia and their impact on poverty. It highlights the challenges faced by the Armenian labor market, including high unemployment, low labor force participation, and the prevalence of low-productivity and informal employment. The report also explores the role of skills, education, and the business environment in shaping these outcomes and provides policy recommendations for improving employment and reducing poverty.

Main Challenges in the Labor Market

• High Unemployment and Low Productivity: Armenia has a very low employment rate (53% of working-age population), which is significantly below European Union levels. The unemployment rate is also high, approaching 20%, with an augmented unemployment rate (including discouraged workers) reaching 30%.
• Low Labor Force Participation: Only about 65.5% of the working-age population is part of the labor force. This is particularly low among women (54.9%) and youth (15-24 years, 55.6%).
• Youth Unemployment: The unemployment rate for those aged 20-24 is 37.5%, and the augmented unemployment rate is 49%. This indicates a significant challenge in transitioning young people from education to employment.
• Informal Employment: Informal employment accounts for nearly 20% of non-agricultural jobs, but this figure may rise to 43% when using different criteria. Informal jobs tend to pay less and offer fewer benefits.
• Skill Mismatch: Despite high levels of education, many workers are not employed in jobs that match their skills. Innovative firms report skill shortages as a major constraint, suggesting a gap between education and labor market needs.

Unemployment Profile

• Urban vs. Rural Unemployment: Unemployment is predominantly an urban issue. Urban unemployment rate is 28%, while rural is less than 7%.
• Age Distribution: In rural areas, young workers (15-29) make up 75% of the unemployed, whereas in urban areas, they account for less than 40%. Prime-age workers (25-54) are the largest group among the unemployed in urban areas.
• Discouraged Workers: A large portion of the unemployed are discouraged workers who have stopped looking for jobs due to a lack of opportunities.
• Public Employment Services: Very few unemployed individuals use public employment services, indicating a need for improved job matching mechanisms.

Nature of Employment

• Agriculture Dominates: Nearly 40% of workers are employed in agriculture, which contributes only 17% to GDP, indicating low productivity in this sector.
• Informal Employment: Informal employment is common even among workers with tertiary education, and it is associated with lower wages and higher poverty risk.
• Overskilling in Informal Sector: Highly educated workers are more likely to be overskilled in the informal sector, suggesting a mismatch between education and job requirements.
• Informal as a Stepping Stone: Some informal employment is a stepping stone to formal employment, but this is not the case for many.

Wage Structure and Inequality

• Wage Inequality: Wage inequality is relatively high in Armenia, with tertiary-educated workers earning 30% more than secondary-educated ones.
• Low Wages in Social Services: Despite high skill intensity, wages in social services remain low, indicating inefficiencies or lack of demand in these sectors.
• Premium to University Education: The premium to university education is highest at the top of the pay scale, suggesting that higher education is not always translating into better wages.
• Informal Wage Disparity: Self-employed workers with registered businesses earn over 90% more than those with unregistered businesses.

Labor Market Outcomes and Poverty

• Poverty and Unemployment: Both unemployed and discouraged workers face a particularly high risk of poverty. Urban unemployed are more vulnerable to poverty than rural unemployed.
• Informal Workers and Poverty: Informal workers are most likely to be poor, highlighting the need for policies that support formal employment.
• Work Intensity and Poverty: Higher work intensity reduces the risk of poverty, while low work intensity increases it. This suggests that employment quality and stability are crucial for poverty reduction.

Policy Implications

• Job Creation in Modern Sectors: Encouraging investment and firm creation, particularly in modern, high-productivity sectors, is essential for increasing employment and reducing poverty.
• Improving the Business Environment: Reducing the costs of doing business, such as taxes, electricity access, and trade barriers, is critical for fostering job creation and reducing informality.
• Enhancing Public Employment Services: Strengthening public employment services can improve job matching and reduce unemployment.
• Investing in Education: High-quality education is necessary to supply the labor market with skilled workers, especially in modern and innovative sectors.
• Supporting Women's Economic Participation: Increasing the economic activity of women is crucial for improving labor utilization and raising living standards.
• Addressing Youth Transition: Facilitating the school-to-work transition for youth is vital to reduce unemployment and improve labor market outcomes.

Key Data Points

• Employment Rate: 52.6% for all workers.
• Unemployment Rate: 19.7% (official data 19.0%).
• Long-Term Unemployment: 51% of the unemployed.
• Labor Force Participation Rate: 65.5%.
• NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training): 39% of Armenian youth are NEETs, compared to less than 15% in most EU countries.
• Informal Employment: 20% of non-agricultural employment (up to 43% using alternative criteria).
• Job Creation Target: To reach a 60% employment rate, Armenia needs to create an additional 166,000 jobs, which could increase GDP by about 8%.

Conclusion

The report concludes that improving the business environment, enhancing public employment services, and investing in high-quality education are key strategies to address the challenges in Armenia's labor market. These measures are expected to lead to increased employment, reduced unemployment, and lower poverty levels.