2009年-世界发展银行全球_Nigeria_-_Employment_and_Growth_Study_219页_4mb

Summary of Employment and Growth Study in Nigeria (Report No. 51564-NG)

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, evaluates Nigeria's economic growth and employment performance since 1999, with a focus on the non-oil sector, and proposes a new growth strategy to enhance employment intensity and ensure sustainable growth. It includes analysis of labor market trends, skills development, and trade policies, with recommendations for policy reforms and sectoral interventions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Nigeria's Growth Performance

• Growth Trends: Nigeria experienced significant economic growth in the non-oil sector from 2001 to 2007, averaging 3-4% before 2003 and increasing to 7% and later 8-9%.
• Drivers of Growth: Growth was primarily due to factor accumulation (e.g., labor and capital) rather than productivity gains.
• Sector Contributions:
  • Agriculture, wholesale, and retail sectors accounted for 70% of growth.
  • New sectors such as construction, financial services, ICT, and entertainment emerged as growth engines.
• Contrast with Oil Sector: The oil sector's contribution to GDP has declined due to unrest in the Niger Delta, while the non-oil economy has shown resilience.

2. Labor Market Evolution (1999–2006)

• Employment and Unemployment:
  • Employment grew in line with the labor force, but unemployment rates remained constant.
  • Youth unemployment increased, raising concerns about public order and youth militancy.
• Income Trends:
  • Incomes in family agriculture nearly doubled in real terms.
  • Wage employment declined, partly due to retrenchment in the civil service and the negative impact of privatization on state-owned enterprises.
• Non-participation in the Labor Market:
  • A significant portion of the population aged 15–65 was not participating in the labor force.
  • Non-participants were more likely to be younger, less educated, and not related to the household head.

3. Need for a New Growth Strategy

• Employment Crisis: Despite strong growth, the youth unemployment rate is rising, and the share of young people outside the labor force is increasing.
• Growth Strategy Features:
  • Domestic-led growth with a later focus on exports.
  • Targeted interventions in high-potential value chains.
  • National skills development framework.
  • Trade liberalization to reduce import bans and improve competitiveness.

4. Phased Growth Strategy

• Phase 1: Focus on domestic market.
  • Growth will be driven by service industries that already contribute significantly.
  • Development of infrastructure will support the emergence of manufacturing industries.
• Phase 2: Extend access to regional markets.
• Phase 3: Promote international market access.
• Geographic Focus:
  • Lagos: High feasibility in ICT, construction, wholesale/retail, and light manufacturing.
  • Kano-Kaduna: Lower feasibility in light manufacturing.
  • South-Eastern region: High potential in agriculture (oil palm, cocoa) and food processing.

5. Skills Development in Technical and Vocational Education

• Current Landscape:
  • Technical and vocational education (TVE) is critical for employment.
  • Technical colleges and polytechnics contribute to skills acquisition.
  • Student Industrial Work Experience Scheme (SIWES) plays a role in linking education to employment.
• Challenges:
  • Limited skills matching with labor market needs.
  • Informal sector dominates skills acquisition.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen skills development programs.
  • Implement a national vocational qualifications framework.
  • Enhance collaboration between education institutions and industry.

6. Trade Policy and Its Impact

• Current Trade Policy:
  • Import bans and high tariffs have been used to protect domestic industries.
  • Trade liberalization is recommended to improve competitiveness.
• Impact of Import Bans:
  • Unofficial trade is prevalent, with mirror imports (imported goods entering via unofficial channels) being a major concern.
  • Customs efficiency is affected by restrictive policies, leading to lower revenue collection.
• Sectoral Impact:
  • Textiles, vegetable oils, and rice are identified as key sectors affected by import bans.
  • Transportation costs for these sectors are high, reducing competitiveness.

Key Recommendations

• Policy Reforms:
  • Liberalize trade policy to reduce import bans and tariffs.
  • Improve customs efficiency to reduce unofficial trade.
  • Develop a national skills development framework to align education with labor market needs.
• Sectoral Focus:
  • Prioritize light manufacturing, construction, ICT, and agriculture (especially oil palm and cocoa).
  • Support export processing zones (EPZs) and free trade zones (FTZs) to enhance competitiveness.
• Infrastructure Development:
  • Invest in power and transportation to reduce cost disadvantages.
• Private Sector Engagement:
  • Encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
  • Strengthen enterprise support programs like the Export Expansion Grant (EEG).

Key Institutions and Acronyms

• World Bank – Task Team Leader: Volker Treichel.
• Nigeria's Ministry of Finance (FMOF), Commerce, Industry, and Trade (FMCIT), Labor and Productivity (Ministry of Labor), and Youth (Ministry of Youth) are key stakeholders.
• Key Acronyms:
  • FMOF: Federal Ministry of Finance
  • FMCIT: Federal Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Trade
  • NEPZA: Nigerian Export Processing Zone Authority
  • EEG: Export Expansion Grant
  • FTZ: Free Trade Zone
  • TVE: Technical and Vocational Education
  • SIWES: Student Industrial Work Experience Scheme
  • NERFUND: National Economic Reconstruction Fund
  • NEXIM: Nigerian Export-Import Bank

Conclusion

Nigeria's recent growth has been strong, particularly in the non-oil sector, but it has not translated into reduced unemployment or poverty. A new growth strategy is needed to ensure employment-intensive growth and sustainable development. This strategy should be phased, geographically tailored, and centered on improving skills development and trade liberalization. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic-led growth, infrastructure development, and sector-specific interventions to address the employment crisis and enhance competitiveness.