2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_Policy_and_Employment_in_Advanced_and_Emerging_Economies_69页_963kb

Summary of Fiscal Policy and Employment in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Core Content

This document, prepared by the Fiscal Affairs Department and approved by Carlo Cottarelli, examines the relationship between fiscal policy and employment in both advanced and emerging economies. It highlights the structural labor market weaknesses and the role of tax and social spending policies in shaping employment outcomes. The paper provides a framework for understanding how fiscal measures can influence labor demand and supply, and outlines policy reforms to address unemployment and increase labor force participation.

Main Views

1. Employment Challenges

• Low Employment Rates: Many advanced and emerging economies face persistently low employment rates, influenced by both cyclical downturns and structural issues.
• Youth Unemployment: Particularly high in Southern and Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), often exceeding twice the national average.
• Long-Term Unemployment: A significant issue in Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe, with potential long-term consequences for human capital.
• Low-Skilled Unemployment: High in advanced economies, contributing to inequality.
• Gender and Age Disparities: Women and older workers have lower labor force participation rates, especially in emerging economies and Southern Europe.

2. Fiscal Policy Impact

• Taxation and Social Spending: These policies influence labor markets by affecting the cost of employment and the incentives to work.
• Short-Term vs. Medium-Term Effects: Fiscal policies can have different impacts depending on the time horizon, with short-term effects focusing on labor demand and medium-term effects on labor supply and job matching.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Boosting Labor Demand: Lowering labor tax wedges (e.g., reducing employer social security contributions), expanding wage subsidies for low-wage workers, and increasing active labor market programs (ALMPs) such as training and job assistance.
• Boosting Labor Supply: Encouraging female participation through targeted tax relief and redesigned child benefits, increasing labor force participation among older workers through pension reforms, and promoting formal employment through improved job matching.

Key Information

Taxation Trends

• Advanced Europe: Has high tax-to-GDP ratios, particularly for direct labor taxes, with a significant portion of tax revenue coming from personal income taxes and social security contributions.
• Other Advanced Economies: Higher income tax ratios, lower social security contributions, and lower general sales taxes.
• Emerging Europe: Lower tax-to-GDP ratios, with a greater reliance on corporate taxes.
• Other Emerging Economies: Lower personal income tax and social security contribution ratios, with corporate taxes being a larger source of revenue.

Social Benefits Trends

• Advanced and Emerging Europe: Higher levels of welfare spending, with pensions accounting for over two-thirds of social benefit spending.
• Other Advanced Economies: Lower welfare spending, with a focus on unemployment and family benefits.
• Other Emerging Economies: Lower welfare spending, often including price subsidies rather than direct employment-related benefits.

Fiscal Policy Reforms

• Advanced Economies: Targeted tax relief, wage subsidies, and ALMPs can reduce unemployment and improve labor market efficiency.
• Emerging Economies: Structural reforms in labor, capital, and product markets are more critical than fiscal reforms. However, appropriately designed fiscal policies can support employment and prevent a shift toward informality.

Country-Specific Considerations

• Regional Variations: Employment outcomes and labor market challenges vary significantly by region, necessitating tailored policy approaches.
• Administrative Capacity and Fiscal Constraints: The effectiveness of fiscal reforms depends on these factors, which vary across countries.
• Trade-offs: Policies to boost employment may involve trade-offs with other public policy goals.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the importance of well-designed fiscal policies in addressing employment challenges. It suggests that while fiscal stimulus can have short-term effects, long-term structural reforms are necessary to improve labor market outcomes. The focus is on incentives for labor demand and supply, and the paper provides a comprehensive set of policy options and data for cross-country comparison.